If you want to know where college football is going, in terms of conferences, television and money, it’s good to know where they’ve been.
The NCAA getting its butt beat in court isn't a new thing. Let’s go back to 1984, when the University of Oklahoma sued the NCAA over television rights. Georgia was also in on the lawsuit, but Oklahoma was the prime mover.
Prior to then, the NCAA had an iron fist, and decreed that only one network could broadcast college games (ABC at the time,) They limited the number of times a school could appear during the season, and had various other rules. Oklahoma and Georgia sued and won. The Supreme Court determined the NCAA had committed anti-trust violations, colleges and conferences got their broadcast rights, and the race was on for television dollars.
Previously, teams had moved from conference to conference some, but usually for reasons other than money. The first big move of the new era was when Arkansas left the Southwest Conference to go to the Southeast Conference in 1990. The SEC did this with an eye towards television contracts, and believed expanding their base would do this. Texas and A&M encouraged Arkansas to go, and opposed bringing in a replacement school, as they wanted to blow up the conference, but politically couldn’t be the ones that did it.
The SWC already had serious problems with recruiting violations, and being an all Texas conference limited the amount of television revenue they could collect. In 1996, the SWC merged with the Big 8. All the Big 8 schools came, but at that time, sixteen teams was considered too large for a conference, and so Rice, SMU, TCU and the University of Houston were cast out.
The Big 12 was the “canary in the coal mine” for the future of college football, where schools with no history or geographic connection are welded into a conference. Less than fifteen years later, other conferences were pursuing the Big 12 schools. in 2011, Colorado and Nebraska both left, Colorado to the PAC and Nebraska for the Big 10. Colorado was looking for a life raft, but Nebraska was still angry because Oklahoma went to the B12 South, and refused to continue playing them on an annual basis. They were the first team that left angry.
After that, Missouri and A&M left for the SEC, and now Texas and Oklahoma have followed them out the door. These moves are only the deals that got pushed through. Prior to that, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State had considered moving to the PAC. Kansas had considered the Big 10. There were several different packages pitched to the PAC for school combinations.
BTW, DeLoss Dodds had a line into Notre Dame, and I've always suspected he wanted to talk Notre Dame into accepting a B10 offer, and Texas would go in as the second school. (That's my personal belief, no evidence.)
The flip side of this is not just about the schools that change conferences, it’s the schools that are left behind. So far, it’s been mostly the more lucrative schools doing the equivalent of leaving one party to go to a new party. They don’t tell a school “get out,” they just leave for a different party.
Conference unity is a talking point, not a fact. Schools are looking out for their own interests. The SEC is unified because they’re getting the biggest paycheck.
Can the money keep increasing? In 2010, ESPN had 100 million subscribers. Now, it has 76 million, and is still dropping. ESPN+ is adding subscribers, but not at the rate ESPN is losing them, and they’re the deepest pockets in the sports world. Their parent company, Disney, has shed half its market value in the last few years. So, can ESPN keep awarding larger contracts? If ESPN pulls back on contracts, it will depress the amount other networks offer.
There are a couple of things that are still to be determined.
Four conferences make the most sense for an expanded playoff, and that will generate a lot of money. That means one of the P5s has to go.
Second, what happens with the weak sister teams in the remaining conferences? So far, teams have voluntarily left conferences for better deals. Is it possible conferences could start kicking teams out for not having good enough stadiums or low attendance, or is it more likely that Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Wake Forest and some others are kept around to be the Washington Generals for the marquee teams? Even if they create a mini-NFL, somebody’s still got to be the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars of the league.
One prediction: The networks are going to get a lot more into gambling. The amount of money being made on sports betting is high, including fantasy teams and straight betting. it may sound far fetched, or maybe not (I'm not into gambling,) but streaming games could have people betting on whether a field goal is good, right to the network, right from their computers. "They're lining up for the field goal, and we're going to commercial break, so you have three minutes to make your bet! It's forty yards, and Zamensky is five of eight from thirty to forty on the season! Get your bet in on the Planet Vegas app, NOW!"
College football video games are coming back. The NCAA killed their very profitable video game in 2014 in an attempt to stave off NIL payments to players. Electronic Arts announced that their NCAA Football game would come back in July 2023. I’m not sure on this, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the conferences ended up taking this away from the NCAA, since the NCAA hasn’t shown they’re particularly competent at negotiating contracts.
The NCAA getting its butt beat in court isn't a new thing. Let’s go back to 1984, when the University of Oklahoma sued the NCAA over television rights. Georgia was also in on the lawsuit, but Oklahoma was the prime mover.
Prior to then, the NCAA had an iron fist, and decreed that only one network could broadcast college games (ABC at the time,) They limited the number of times a school could appear during the season, and had various other rules. Oklahoma and Georgia sued and won. The Supreme Court determined the NCAA had committed anti-trust violations, colleges and conferences got their broadcast rights, and the race was on for television dollars.
Previously, teams had moved from conference to conference some, but usually for reasons other than money. The first big move of the new era was when Arkansas left the Southwest Conference to go to the Southeast Conference in 1990. The SEC did this with an eye towards television contracts, and believed expanding their base would do this. Texas and A&M encouraged Arkansas to go, and opposed bringing in a replacement school, as they wanted to blow up the conference, but politically couldn’t be the ones that did it.
The SWC already had serious problems with recruiting violations, and being an all Texas conference limited the amount of television revenue they could collect. In 1996, the SWC merged with the Big 8. All the Big 8 schools came, but at that time, sixteen teams was considered too large for a conference, and so Rice, SMU, TCU and the University of Houston were cast out.
The Big 12 was the “canary in the coal mine” for the future of college football, where schools with no history or geographic connection are welded into a conference. Less than fifteen years later, other conferences were pursuing the Big 12 schools. in 2011, Colorado and Nebraska both left, Colorado to the PAC and Nebraska for the Big 10. Colorado was looking for a life raft, but Nebraska was still angry because Oklahoma went to the B12 South, and refused to continue playing them on an annual basis. They were the first team that left angry.
After that, Missouri and A&M left for the SEC, and now Texas and Oklahoma have followed them out the door. These moves are only the deals that got pushed through. Prior to that, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State had considered moving to the PAC. Kansas had considered the Big 10. There were several different packages pitched to the PAC for school combinations.
BTW, DeLoss Dodds had a line into Notre Dame, and I've always suspected he wanted to talk Notre Dame into accepting a B10 offer, and Texas would go in as the second school. (That's my personal belief, no evidence.)
The flip side of this is not just about the schools that change conferences, it’s the schools that are left behind. So far, it’s been mostly the more lucrative schools doing the equivalent of leaving one party to go to a new party. They don’t tell a school “get out,” they just leave for a different party.
Conference unity is a talking point, not a fact. Schools are looking out for their own interests. The SEC is unified because they’re getting the biggest paycheck.
Can the money keep increasing? In 2010, ESPN had 100 million subscribers. Now, it has 76 million, and is still dropping. ESPN+ is adding subscribers, but not at the rate ESPN is losing them, and they’re the deepest pockets in the sports world. Their parent company, Disney, has shed half its market value in the last few years. So, can ESPN keep awarding larger contracts? If ESPN pulls back on contracts, it will depress the amount other networks offer.
There are a couple of things that are still to be determined.
Four conferences make the most sense for an expanded playoff, and that will generate a lot of money. That means one of the P5s has to go.
Second, what happens with the weak sister teams in the remaining conferences? So far, teams have voluntarily left conferences for better deals. Is it possible conferences could start kicking teams out for not having good enough stadiums or low attendance, or is it more likely that Vanderbilt, Rutgers, Wake Forest and some others are kept around to be the Washington Generals for the marquee teams? Even if they create a mini-NFL, somebody’s still got to be the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars of the league.
One prediction: The networks are going to get a lot more into gambling. The amount of money being made on sports betting is high, including fantasy teams and straight betting. it may sound far fetched, or maybe not (I'm not into gambling,) but streaming games could have people betting on whether a field goal is good, right to the network, right from their computers. "They're lining up for the field goal, and we're going to commercial break, so you have three minutes to make your bet! It's forty yards, and Zamensky is five of eight from thirty to forty on the season! Get your bet in on the Planet Vegas app, NOW!"
College football video games are coming back. The NCAA killed their very profitable video game in 2014 in an attempt to stave off NIL payments to players. Electronic Arts announced that their NCAA Football game would come back in July 2023. I’m not sure on this, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the conferences ended up taking this away from the NCAA, since the NCAA hasn’t shown they’re particularly competent at negotiating contracts.
