By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
There’s nothing wrong with spending New Year’s in New Orleans. As far as Baylor’s football program's recent postseason history suggests that it’s either an all or nothing destination.
For the second time in three years, the No. 7 Bears return to the Crescent City to play in the 88th annual Allstate Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome.
The Big 12 champions meet No. 8 Ole Miss in a game that has some interesting symmetry going for it. Here’s what’s at stake when the game kicks off at 7:45 pm Saturday:
>Baylor is trying for its first 12-win season.
>Ole Miss is trying for an 11-win season.
>The Bears are looking to go to 2-1 in this game as they are making their third appearance.
>The Rebels are attempting to go 13-2 in their last 15 bowl appearances.
>This is only the second meeting between these programs. Baylor won the only matchup, 20-10, in 1975 in Waco.
>Baylor has won its last four games. Ole Miss has won its last four.
Neither team reportedly has had a player opt out to play this game. There have been some minor COVID-19 issues with Ole Miss. However, it was nothing daunting that caused the game to be in jeopardy.
The following is breakdown of this matchup.
No. 7 Baylor (11-2) vs. No. 8 Ole Miss (10-2)
Time/Site: 7:45 p.m. Saturday, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV/Radio: ESPN/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Baylor leads, 1-0
Betting Line: Ole Miss -1.5
Head Coaches
Baylor: Dave Aranda (13-9, 2nd season); OIe Miss: Lane Kiffin (76-41 overall, 15-7 2nd season at Ole Miss)
Tale of the Tape
Scoring offense: Baylor (32.5); Ole Miss (35.9)
Total offense: Baylor (430.7); Ole Miss (506.7)
Passing offense: Baylor (216.0); Ole Miss (282.4)
Rushing offense: Baylor (214.7); Ole Miss (224.2)
Scoring defense: Baylor (19.2); Ole Miss (25.0)
Total defense: Baylor (347.8); Ole Miss (428.8)
Passing defense: Baylor (230.8); Ole Miss (245.8)
Rushing defense: Baylor (116.8); Ole Miss (183.0)
Sacks by: Baylor (32); Ole Miss (39)
Sacks allowed: Baylor (18); Ole Miss (24)
3rd Down offense: Baylor (42.0); Ole Miss (40.0)
3rd Down defense: Baylor (35.0); Ole Miss (38.0)
4th down offense: Baylor (67.0); Ole Miss (62.0)
4th down defense: Baylor (57.0); Ole Miss (52.0)
Red Zone offense: Baylor (88.0); Ole Miss (78.0)
Turnover Ratio: Baylor (+10, 2nd); Ole Miss (+11)
When Ole Miss has the ball
Quarterback Matt Corral (3,339 passing yards, 20TD, 4INT, 597 rushing 12TD) is a pretty special quarterback and is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft. He actually did the unusual by NOT opting out and playing this game. He said it was because of his teammates and that he never questioned the notion to play.
Corral finished 7th in the Heisman Trophy race. He has a strong arm. There are times when he will want to be a hero but he’s far advanced from last year.
Ole Miss is the only team in the country to feature four backs with 500 rushing yards or more in Jerrion Early (703, 5TD), Snoop Conner (605, 13TD), Corral and Henry Parrish Jr. (542. 3TD).
It’s similar in the passing game where six different receivers have at least 20 receptions. The No. 1 target is Dontario Drummond (67-924, 13.8, 8TD). He has twice the number of receptions as any of the other five. Braylon Sanders (512, 22.3 3TD) is the vertical threat. This is Jeff Lebby’s last game as offensive coordinator. The former Baylor assistant is going to back to Oklahoma to be a part of Brent Venables staff as the Sooners new offensive coordinator.
What Baylor must do
Baylor linebacker Terrel Bernard said on Thursday's zoom session with the media that they believe the best way to counter the Rebels is to slow down the running game and attempt to get Ole Miss out of its tempo.
Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts knows his young but steadily improving defensive front must find a way to put pressure on Corral to force the ball out of his hand early. Whether that’s in the form of blitzes or a straight rush is likely going to depend on how the Rebel offensive line is set up.
In the 42-21 loss at Alabama, the real problem against the Crimson Tide is that Kiffin tried to go for it on fourth down on two situations where the ball was on his side of the field. The Rebels were stopped and the Crimson Tide turned those into touchdowns.
Aranda’s defense swarms to the football very well. It could entice Kiffin to be forced to do the same thing that happened in Tuscaloosa, AL. There are probably two magic numbers this unit it looking at: 3 and 30. The first is the number of turnovers it believes it needs to generate. The second is the max number of points it can allow to give Baylor the opportunity to win this game.
When Baylor has the ball
Gerry Bohanon (2,165, 64.3, 17TD, 5INT) is back after six weeks since suffering a right hamstring injury Nov. 20 at Kansas State. Both Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes believe Bohanon has looked solid enough in practice that they can use him for whatever is necessary. There should not be any limitations.
All that’s missing is Bohanon possibly shaking off the rust, which he has had two weeks longer than his teammates. Keeping him healthy will be priority since backup Blake Shapen is out with a right shoulder injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the Big 12 Championship game against Oklahoma State. That means the backup is little-used Kyron Drones.
Of course, the cog to this machine is running back Abram Smith (1,429 yards, 6.2, 12TD). He’s enjoying one of the greatest single seasons in school history. He needs 119 yards to break the single-season rushing record. That was set by Terence Ganaway (1,547) in 2011. Trestan Ebner has put together a more physical season combining for more than 1,000 total yards (763 rushing, 284 receiving).
Baylor’s receiving game somewhat mirrors Ole Miss. Tyquan Thornton (61-946, 15.5, 9TD) really came on in the second half of the season to become the alpha receiver. RJ Sneed (563, 12.8 2TD) started fast but was pretty quiet for the latter half of the season. Tight end Ben Sims (361, 11.6, 6TD) had had a nice season and turned into the receiving threat Grimes envisioned.
Baylor is a balanced offense, 2,791 rushing, 2,808 passing.
What Ole Miss must do
Operating out of a 4-2-5, the Rebels have enjoyed somewhat of a turnaround in 2021. They have the fourth best turnaround in FBS from 2020 allowing 13.3 fewer points per game. For them, it’s going to be what they can do with Smith and not let him go off.
But stopping North-South runners has been a problem for the Rebels. Against Alabama, Brian Robinson rushed for 176 yards. Against Auburn, Tank Bigsby rushed for 140. Those were Ole Miss’ two losses. They allow 4.3 yards per attempt so they’re going to have to load up the box more than likely.
Linebacker Chance Campbell is one of the better linebackers in all of college football. He averages 8.5 tackles per game and leads all Rebel tacklers with 12.5 for loss including six sacks.
Defensive end Sam Williams has a school-record 12.5 sacks and is a second-team All American. He has a very good bookend in Cedric Williams who has totaled 6.5 sacks.
The Rebels will use three safeties and has quality performers back there in Otis Reese, Keidron Smith and Tysheem Johnson. All three are pretty solid in run support. But it has one of the better safeties in AJ Finley who is second in tackles (88) and had three interceptions.
It always comes back to the kicking game
Everything was looking good for Baylor’s kicking game until Isaiah Hankins missed two field goals – both inside 40 yards – in the Big 12 championship. Those misses were big as Baylor needed Jairon McVea’s play to save the day. Hankins is now 14-20 on the season.
There’s nothing with Issac Power’s punting. He’s enjoying a phenomenal season at 46.2 yards per effort. Of his 44 efforts, 19 have covered at least 50 yards.
Ole Miss’ PK issues went sideways in late November when Caden Costa was suspended by the NCAA for "due to NCAA protocol involving an endurance substance most likely found in a contaminated supplement." His absence hurts because he was 14-17 on field goals. Cale Nation is expected to handle those duties Saturday. He kicked in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State and converted a 25-yard field goal and all four PATs.
Mac Brown is a very solid punter averaging 44.6 per with 15 that have landed inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
Baylor’s return threat is Ebner, who needs to have a short memory on the punt return issues he had in the Big 12 championship game. Ole Miss has been pretty nondescript. The Rebels have returned only seven punts this year, an unusually low number.
Intangibles
Turnovers: Both teams thrive off of these while doing a pretty good job of taking care of the ball. The Bears are +10. The Rebels are +11. This is going to be about finding ways to create momentum for one side since it has been a factor toward both playing the final game on New Year’s.
4th Down: Aranda made a costly decision to go for it at his 36 midway through the third quarter against Oklahoma State and it backfired. The Bears were stopped. Oklahoma State scored and the game took a turn. Now, bowl games can bring out a bit of a carefree approach of trying different things. Kiffin does the same thing. But Ole Miss’ Red Zone scoring percentage (78) is that low because he will force it and it sometimes doesn’t work. We’ll see how this goes.
Over at halftime?: Both teams have enjoyed their most success in the second quarter. The Rebels relish it. They’ve outscored their opponents 167-72. In no other quarter have they scored 100. Baylor outscores its opponents 115-70 in the frame.
Drive for show: Ole Miss’ offense can put together some long marches this year. The Rebels have four touchdown scoring possessions that covered at least 90 yards. Baylor has one, but that 93-yard march came against Texas Southern. Maybe the Bears’ most impressive drive of the year was the 83-yard effort that created separation against Oklahoma.
The Two Factors
>It’s probably going to be a chess game between Aranda and Kiffin because each knows each other so well from previous meetings. Aranda’s defense sometimes gives the appearance of being one step ahead of the opposing offense. Kiffin’s stubbornness can get him into trouble. But he respects Aranda and knows how good this unit is.
>The fourth quarter has been that has been good to the Bears. That's how they have usually put away games. See Texas and Oklahoma among others. Now they had to hang on against Oklahoma State. But Ole Miss has been vulnerable in this period. The Rebels have been outscored, 100-87.
Baylor’s one player
This is about Bohanon. As we mentioned above, he’s coming back from being out for six weeks with the wheel injury. Returning from a hamstring issue is always a matter of time, who the patient is and how his body heals.
There’s really no way to know exactly what Bohanon can do until the Bears’ first possession. There have been some games where Bohanon has thrown the ball really well and others when he has been suspect. Bohanon threw all six of his interceptions in a four-game stretch between BYU, Texas, TCU and Oklahoma.
But if Bohanon is running like he did against Oklahoma, that’s a really good sign. Should he be limited or if he tweaks it but can play through it, then that’s going to alter Baylor’s game plan.
Prediction
You’ve heard the basketball analogy where one team likes to play a game in a certain point range.
For this Sugar Bowl, it fits here perfectly. You have an Ole Miss up tempo offense that bothered a lot of teams to where they averaged over 500 yards and wants to make life miserable. Corral is the best quarterback Baylor will see this year. That’s what you should expect when you’re playing in a NY6 game.
Then there’s Baylor that wants to be methodical, slow the game down and frustrate the opposition.
Given the unknown of Bohanon’s return, Baylor has to keep this game in the 20s in order to win it. But that's what it normally likes to do anyway. It won’t win a track meet with Ole Miss if the contest somehow evolves that way. And it needs to create some turnovers, something it’s really good at doing.
The other thing Baylor can’t do is fall into a deep hole. A 10-point deficit is doable. Anything beyond that could be too much to ask.
Good pitching beats good hitting. Good defense beats good offense.
Baylor 27, Ole Miss 24
Publisher
There’s nothing wrong with spending New Year’s in New Orleans. As far as Baylor’s football program's recent postseason history suggests that it’s either an all or nothing destination.
For the second time in three years, the No. 7 Bears return to the Crescent City to play in the 88th annual Allstate Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome.
The Big 12 champions meet No. 8 Ole Miss in a game that has some interesting symmetry going for it. Here’s what’s at stake when the game kicks off at 7:45 pm Saturday:
>Baylor is trying for its first 12-win season.
>Ole Miss is trying for an 11-win season.
>The Bears are looking to go to 2-1 in this game as they are making their third appearance.
>The Rebels are attempting to go 13-2 in their last 15 bowl appearances.
>This is only the second meeting between these programs. Baylor won the only matchup, 20-10, in 1975 in Waco.
>Baylor has won its last four games. Ole Miss has won its last four.
Neither team reportedly has had a player opt out to play this game. There have been some minor COVID-19 issues with Ole Miss. However, it was nothing daunting that caused the game to be in jeopardy.
The following is breakdown of this matchup.
No. 7 Baylor (11-2) vs. No. 8 Ole Miss (10-2)
Time/Site: 7:45 p.m. Saturday, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV/Radio: ESPN/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Baylor leads, 1-0
Betting Line: Ole Miss -1.5
Head Coaches
Baylor: Dave Aranda (13-9, 2nd season); OIe Miss: Lane Kiffin (76-41 overall, 15-7 2nd season at Ole Miss)
Tale of the Tape
Scoring offense: Baylor (32.5); Ole Miss (35.9)
Total offense: Baylor (430.7); Ole Miss (506.7)
Passing offense: Baylor (216.0); Ole Miss (282.4)
Rushing offense: Baylor (214.7); Ole Miss (224.2)
Scoring defense: Baylor (19.2); Ole Miss (25.0)
Total defense: Baylor (347.8); Ole Miss (428.8)
Passing defense: Baylor (230.8); Ole Miss (245.8)
Rushing defense: Baylor (116.8); Ole Miss (183.0)
Sacks by: Baylor (32); Ole Miss (39)
Sacks allowed: Baylor (18); Ole Miss (24)
3rd Down offense: Baylor (42.0); Ole Miss (40.0)
3rd Down defense: Baylor (35.0); Ole Miss (38.0)
4th down offense: Baylor (67.0); Ole Miss (62.0)
4th down defense: Baylor (57.0); Ole Miss (52.0)
Red Zone offense: Baylor (88.0); Ole Miss (78.0)
Turnover Ratio: Baylor (+10, 2nd); Ole Miss (+11)
When Ole Miss has the ball
Quarterback Matt Corral (3,339 passing yards, 20TD, 4INT, 597 rushing 12TD) is a pretty special quarterback and is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft. He actually did the unusual by NOT opting out and playing this game. He said it was because of his teammates and that he never questioned the notion to play.
Corral finished 7th in the Heisman Trophy race. He has a strong arm. There are times when he will want to be a hero but he’s far advanced from last year.
Ole Miss is the only team in the country to feature four backs with 500 rushing yards or more in Jerrion Early (703, 5TD), Snoop Conner (605, 13TD), Corral and Henry Parrish Jr. (542. 3TD).
It’s similar in the passing game where six different receivers have at least 20 receptions. The No. 1 target is Dontario Drummond (67-924, 13.8, 8TD). He has twice the number of receptions as any of the other five. Braylon Sanders (512, 22.3 3TD) is the vertical threat. This is Jeff Lebby’s last game as offensive coordinator. The former Baylor assistant is going to back to Oklahoma to be a part of Brent Venables staff as the Sooners new offensive coordinator.
What Baylor must do
Baylor linebacker Terrel Bernard said on Thursday's zoom session with the media that they believe the best way to counter the Rebels is to slow down the running game and attempt to get Ole Miss out of its tempo.
Defensive coordinator Ron Roberts knows his young but steadily improving defensive front must find a way to put pressure on Corral to force the ball out of his hand early. Whether that’s in the form of blitzes or a straight rush is likely going to depend on how the Rebel offensive line is set up.
In the 42-21 loss at Alabama, the real problem against the Crimson Tide is that Kiffin tried to go for it on fourth down on two situations where the ball was on his side of the field. The Rebels were stopped and the Crimson Tide turned those into touchdowns.
Aranda’s defense swarms to the football very well. It could entice Kiffin to be forced to do the same thing that happened in Tuscaloosa, AL. There are probably two magic numbers this unit it looking at: 3 and 30. The first is the number of turnovers it believes it needs to generate. The second is the max number of points it can allow to give Baylor the opportunity to win this game.
When Baylor has the ball
Gerry Bohanon (2,165, 64.3, 17TD, 5INT) is back after six weeks since suffering a right hamstring injury Nov. 20 at Kansas State. Both Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes believe Bohanon has looked solid enough in practice that they can use him for whatever is necessary. There should not be any limitations.
All that’s missing is Bohanon possibly shaking off the rust, which he has had two weeks longer than his teammates. Keeping him healthy will be priority since backup Blake Shapen is out with a right shoulder injury suffered in the fourth quarter of the Big 12 Championship game against Oklahoma State. That means the backup is little-used Kyron Drones.
Of course, the cog to this machine is running back Abram Smith (1,429 yards, 6.2, 12TD). He’s enjoying one of the greatest single seasons in school history. He needs 119 yards to break the single-season rushing record. That was set by Terence Ganaway (1,547) in 2011. Trestan Ebner has put together a more physical season combining for more than 1,000 total yards (763 rushing, 284 receiving).
Baylor’s receiving game somewhat mirrors Ole Miss. Tyquan Thornton (61-946, 15.5, 9TD) really came on in the second half of the season to become the alpha receiver. RJ Sneed (563, 12.8 2TD) started fast but was pretty quiet for the latter half of the season. Tight end Ben Sims (361, 11.6, 6TD) had had a nice season and turned into the receiving threat Grimes envisioned.
Baylor is a balanced offense, 2,791 rushing, 2,808 passing.
What Ole Miss must do
Operating out of a 4-2-5, the Rebels have enjoyed somewhat of a turnaround in 2021. They have the fourth best turnaround in FBS from 2020 allowing 13.3 fewer points per game. For them, it’s going to be what they can do with Smith and not let him go off.
But stopping North-South runners has been a problem for the Rebels. Against Alabama, Brian Robinson rushed for 176 yards. Against Auburn, Tank Bigsby rushed for 140. Those were Ole Miss’ two losses. They allow 4.3 yards per attempt so they’re going to have to load up the box more than likely.
Linebacker Chance Campbell is one of the better linebackers in all of college football. He averages 8.5 tackles per game and leads all Rebel tacklers with 12.5 for loss including six sacks.
Defensive end Sam Williams has a school-record 12.5 sacks and is a second-team All American. He has a very good bookend in Cedric Williams who has totaled 6.5 sacks.
The Rebels will use three safeties and has quality performers back there in Otis Reese, Keidron Smith and Tysheem Johnson. All three are pretty solid in run support. But it has one of the better safeties in AJ Finley who is second in tackles (88) and had three interceptions.
It always comes back to the kicking game
Everything was looking good for Baylor’s kicking game until Isaiah Hankins missed two field goals – both inside 40 yards – in the Big 12 championship. Those misses were big as Baylor needed Jairon McVea’s play to save the day. Hankins is now 14-20 on the season.
There’s nothing with Issac Power’s punting. He’s enjoying a phenomenal season at 46.2 yards per effort. Of his 44 efforts, 19 have covered at least 50 yards.
Ole Miss’ PK issues went sideways in late November when Caden Costa was suspended by the NCAA for "due to NCAA protocol involving an endurance substance most likely found in a contaminated supplement." His absence hurts because he was 14-17 on field goals. Cale Nation is expected to handle those duties Saturday. He kicked in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State and converted a 25-yard field goal and all four PATs.
Mac Brown is a very solid punter averaging 44.6 per with 15 that have landed inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
Baylor’s return threat is Ebner, who needs to have a short memory on the punt return issues he had in the Big 12 championship game. Ole Miss has been pretty nondescript. The Rebels have returned only seven punts this year, an unusually low number.
Intangibles
Turnovers: Both teams thrive off of these while doing a pretty good job of taking care of the ball. The Bears are +10. The Rebels are +11. This is going to be about finding ways to create momentum for one side since it has been a factor toward both playing the final game on New Year’s.
4th Down: Aranda made a costly decision to go for it at his 36 midway through the third quarter against Oklahoma State and it backfired. The Bears were stopped. Oklahoma State scored and the game took a turn. Now, bowl games can bring out a bit of a carefree approach of trying different things. Kiffin does the same thing. But Ole Miss’ Red Zone scoring percentage (78) is that low because he will force it and it sometimes doesn’t work. We’ll see how this goes.
Over at halftime?: Both teams have enjoyed their most success in the second quarter. The Rebels relish it. They’ve outscored their opponents 167-72. In no other quarter have they scored 100. Baylor outscores its opponents 115-70 in the frame.
Drive for show: Ole Miss’ offense can put together some long marches this year. The Rebels have four touchdown scoring possessions that covered at least 90 yards. Baylor has one, but that 93-yard march came against Texas Southern. Maybe the Bears’ most impressive drive of the year was the 83-yard effort that created separation against Oklahoma.
The Two Factors
>It’s probably going to be a chess game between Aranda and Kiffin because each knows each other so well from previous meetings. Aranda’s defense sometimes gives the appearance of being one step ahead of the opposing offense. Kiffin’s stubbornness can get him into trouble. But he respects Aranda and knows how good this unit is.
>The fourth quarter has been that has been good to the Bears. That's how they have usually put away games. See Texas and Oklahoma among others. Now they had to hang on against Oklahoma State. But Ole Miss has been vulnerable in this period. The Rebels have been outscored, 100-87.
Baylor’s one player
This is about Bohanon. As we mentioned above, he’s coming back from being out for six weeks with the wheel injury. Returning from a hamstring issue is always a matter of time, who the patient is and how his body heals.
There’s really no way to know exactly what Bohanon can do until the Bears’ first possession. There have been some games where Bohanon has thrown the ball really well and others when he has been suspect. Bohanon threw all six of his interceptions in a four-game stretch between BYU, Texas, TCU and Oklahoma.
But if Bohanon is running like he did against Oklahoma, that’s a really good sign. Should he be limited or if he tweaks it but can play through it, then that’s going to alter Baylor’s game plan.
Prediction
You’ve heard the basketball analogy where one team likes to play a game in a certain point range.
For this Sugar Bowl, it fits here perfectly. You have an Ole Miss up tempo offense that bothered a lot of teams to where they averaged over 500 yards and wants to make life miserable. Corral is the best quarterback Baylor will see this year. That’s what you should expect when you’re playing in a NY6 game.
Then there’s Baylor that wants to be methodical, slow the game down and frustrate the opposition.
Given the unknown of Bohanon’s return, Baylor has to keep this game in the 20s in order to win it. But that's what it normally likes to do anyway. It won’t win a track meet with Ole Miss if the contest somehow evolves that way. And it needs to create some turnovers, something it’s really good at doing.
The other thing Baylor can’t do is fall into a deep hole. A 10-point deficit is doable. Anything beyond that could be too much to ask.
Good pitching beats good hitting. Good defense beats good offense.
Baylor 27, Ole Miss 24
