By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
When Baylor’s 2018-19 season ended in a second-round loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA tournament, it almost seemed like the opening act.
A season that seemed lost when forward Tristan Clark went down to a knee injury in January, forced head coach Scott Drew to retool his team. This roster got hot from beyond the arc for a good month, turned into a relentless rebounding group and built up enough of a resume to make the tournament.
It saw the emergence of Alabama transfer guard Jared Butler who was inserted into the starting lineup and flourished. Look no further than the regular season finale at Kansas when he scored 31 points.
There was enough in the post between committee approach between Freddie Gillespie, Flo Thamba and Mark Vital to make teams respect the Bears.
Baylor finished 4th in the Big 12 at 10-8 and 20-14 overall coupled with a 78-69 win over Syracuse in the first round of March Madness. Baylor completed its 12th consecutive winning season under Drew and eighth appearance in the NCAA tournament.
The buildup for the 2019-20 season has been growing by the day. It then reached new levels of excitement when the Big 12 preseason poll was released last month and the Bears were picked second behind Kansas. They also received a first-place vote.
To augment that, the Bears were ranked No. 16 and No. 18 in the preseason coaches and AP Polls. Minus injuries – they are always an equalizer - anything short of a deep run in the NCAA tournament would be stunning.
This is a balanced lineup. It’s conceivable that Drew, who is entering his 17th season, could play 10 in a game and see little drop off. Aside from graduations, Baylor indefinitely suspended the mercurial Mario Kegler for a violation of team rules in September before he elected to turn pro. Transfers guard Adam Flagler (Presbyterian) and forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (UNLV) have to sit out this year to fulfill NCAA requirements.
The season begins at 11:00 a.m. Tuesday against Central Arkansas at the Ferrell Center.
Time to take a look at the 2019-20 Bears:
Head coach: Scott Drew (17th season) – 316-209; 336-220 (18 overall seasons)
2018-19 Record: 20-14, 10-8 Big 12 4th; lost to Gonzaga, 83-71 NCAA tournament 2nd round
Returning starters: G Jared Butler, Soph.; F Mark Vital, Jr., F Tristan Clark, Jr.; F Freddie Gillespie, Sr.
Key returners: G Devonte Bandoo, Sr.; F Flo Thamba, Soph.; G/F Matthew Mayer, Soph.
Top newcomers: G Davion Mitchell, Soph. (Auburn); G MaCio Teague, Jr. (UNC Ashville); G Jordan Turner, Fr. (Sunrise Christian HS, Kansas), Houston
Back Court
You want 3-point shooters? Baylor has them. A lot of them. In 2018-19, nearly 41 percent of the Bears’ field goal attempts were from the 3-point line. They made a respectable percentage at 34.1.
It wouldn’t be shocking if that trend continues or goes a little higher to start the season.
But before we dive into that, what’s going to be important for this backcourt is developing a leader who can run the offense and keep everything organized, especially in crunch time. That’s something that graduated Makai Mason did very well.
All eyes will fall to Jared Butler who does have that clutch shot factor in his game. He showed that at times last year. If Butler takes control of that role, the Bears should be fine.
Butler averaged 10.5 points and 2.7 assists per game. He shot 35 percent from the and just 39.5 percent from the field. That second number has to get into the mid-40s. And if he’s going to be the main facilitator, the assist number needs to hover around four. A 1.5-1 assists to turnover ratio would be perfect. The scoring average would be ideal at about 15.
But consider the 3-point shooting that is infused into this lineup. Auburn transfer Davion Mitchell didn’t have a great freshman season shooting it. He was at 28 percent. However, there are higher hopes for him.
UNC-Ashville transfer and one-time Baylor recruiting target MaCio Teague dominated in the Big South in 2017-18. He shot 42.5 percent from the arc and averaged 16.7 points per game. Instant offense. The only question for him is how his game translates from a lower D1 school to the rigors of this schedule.
Devonte Bandoo’s role on this team should also be interesting. He’s going to be the fourth – maybe not in that order – of 3-point shooters teams will have to account for. Bandoo was actually this team’s best long-range shooter at nearly 40 percent last year.
What this quartet is going to have to do a better job is on field goals from within the arc and mid-range. Baylor only shot 44 percent as a team for the season.
It has not been determined if freshman Jordan Turner will be redshirted or not. A decision could come as soon as this week. Sophomore guard/forward Matthew Mayer will be fighting for minutes. If he finds some consistency in his game, then he will get his share.
Front Court
When he went down to a season-ending knee injury in January, Tristan Clark was having a phenomenal season. He was leading the country in field goal percentage at 73.7 percent. It was also a single-season school record.
Drew traditionally likes to run his offense through the post. Clark’s recovery has been slow and steady. But don’t expect his return to dominance and prominence to be automatic once he steps on the court Tuesday. It’s still going to take some time for him.
Once he gets there, Clark has the ability to be a double double player. Look for that starting in December.
Clark’s presence will help those like senior Freddie Gillespie. Gillespie pretty much overachieved but thrived in Drew’s system. He averaged five points and four rebounds per game. That would be acceptable.
Junior Mark Vital is always going to be a rebounding warrior. He’s the best offensive rebounder on this team. He averaged seven and seven in 2018-19. Vital won’t be asked to score as much this year because of the other options. Work on the glass is demanded.
The curious part of this group is going to be sophomore Flo Thamba. He had the furthest way to go last year and was pressed into duty when Clark went down. His contributions were minimal. We’ll just have to see how he fits in to the rotation.
Intangibles
There are two areas where Baylor has to improve: overall shooting and free throw shooting.
Losing Clark really changed how Baylor worked inside the paint. The mid-range game was also spotty. Shooting 44 percent won’t win a Big 12 championship. Shooting 47 percent can put a team in the conversation.
The Bears were sometimes their own worst enemy at the foul line connecting on 67 percent. One game where they couldn’t miss was followed by a game where they couldn’t hit one. That was the surprising part because Drew’s teams have typically been pretty good at the line.
Championship teams have to shoot 70 percent at the line at the least.
Baylor’s defensive approach should also be something to watch. Drew didn’t go to the 1-3-1, 1-1-3 zone as much last year because of the loss of Clark. He played more man than many were used to seeing.
It’s fair to say that it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bears do the same thing in 2019-20.
Baylor was better in the assists-to-turnover ratio last year. It was on the plus side at 13.9 assists to 13.1 turnovers per game. This group should keep that going if not make it better.
2018-19 Schedule
Baylor’s first test will be the Armed Forces Classic Friday in Anchorage, AK against Washington, a team that received votes in both the AP and Coaches Polls. The Huskies, who won the 2018-19 PAC 12 regular season title, were picked third in the preseason poll behind Oregon and Colorado.
The Myrtle Beach Invitational Nov. 21-24 is one where a potential date with Villanova awaits. The Bears and Wildcats are on opposite sides of the bracket. The Bears start off with Ohio and then play either Utah or Coastal Carolina. That tournament’s field also features Mississippi State, a program that made the NCAA tournament and whom Baylor saw in the NIT in 2018.
The return game with Arizona, ranked No. 21 and No. 17 in both preseason polls, is Dec. 7, an 11:00 a.m. game at the Ferrell Center. And if you’re looking ahead, that would run opposite of the football team potentially playing in the Big 12 championship game.
Meanwhile the Dec. 10 Big East/Big 12 Battle with Butler is at the Ferrell Center. The Bulldogs are expected to have a down season. They are predicted eighth in the Big East preseason poll.
Then there are huge gaps in the schedule. Baylor plays UT-Martin in Houston at the Toyota Center on Dec. 18 and then doesn’t play its last game of 2019 until Dec. 30 against Jackson State.
As for the Big 12 season, a home date with Texas on Jan. 4 opens the two month grind. Then comes the big test, Jan. 7 at Texas Tech and Jan. 11 at Kansas. Baylor plays host to Iowa State on Jan. 15.
The usual Big 12/SEC challenge game will put the Bears in the primetime spotlight as they play at Florida on Jan. 25 in Gainesville, Fl. The Gators begin the season ranked No. 6 in both preseason polls.
Kansas plays in Waco Feb. 22. Texas Tech visits March 2. The Big 12 tournament is March 11-14 in Kansas City. The NCAA tournament begins March 19.
Indeed, this schedule is the kind that a team expected to make a run in March schedules.
2019-20 Forecast
This is going to be a really good team. It will contend for the Big 12 championship. Don’t expect too much from Clark at the beginning. Just let him get into the flow. Same thing goes for this roster which is welcoming three new faces – Turner, Teague and Mitchell – and Drew trying to find lineups that have chemistry. The non-conference schedule is excellent.
While Kansas is predicted to win the Big 12, Baylor has a real shot at claiming the regular season title. But it has to win Jan. 11 in Lawrence, KS – a place it has never won – to do that. This is the team that can do it.
The talent is good enough to play into the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. The talent is good enough to play four games in the NCAA tournament (Elite 8). Can it get to the third weekend, the Final Four April 3-6 at Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta? That depends on matchups and catching some breaks.
Forecast - Baylor wins at least 25 games, finishes second in the Big 12 and plays in the Elite 8.
Publisher
When Baylor’s 2018-19 season ended in a second-round loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA tournament, it almost seemed like the opening act.
A season that seemed lost when forward Tristan Clark went down to a knee injury in January, forced head coach Scott Drew to retool his team. This roster got hot from beyond the arc for a good month, turned into a relentless rebounding group and built up enough of a resume to make the tournament.
It saw the emergence of Alabama transfer guard Jared Butler who was inserted into the starting lineup and flourished. Look no further than the regular season finale at Kansas when he scored 31 points.
There was enough in the post between committee approach between Freddie Gillespie, Flo Thamba and Mark Vital to make teams respect the Bears.
Baylor finished 4th in the Big 12 at 10-8 and 20-14 overall coupled with a 78-69 win over Syracuse in the first round of March Madness. Baylor completed its 12th consecutive winning season under Drew and eighth appearance in the NCAA tournament.
The buildup for the 2019-20 season has been growing by the day. It then reached new levels of excitement when the Big 12 preseason poll was released last month and the Bears were picked second behind Kansas. They also received a first-place vote.
To augment that, the Bears were ranked No. 16 and No. 18 in the preseason coaches and AP Polls. Minus injuries – they are always an equalizer - anything short of a deep run in the NCAA tournament would be stunning.
This is a balanced lineup. It’s conceivable that Drew, who is entering his 17th season, could play 10 in a game and see little drop off. Aside from graduations, Baylor indefinitely suspended the mercurial Mario Kegler for a violation of team rules in September before he elected to turn pro. Transfers guard Adam Flagler (Presbyterian) and forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (UNLV) have to sit out this year to fulfill NCAA requirements.
The season begins at 11:00 a.m. Tuesday against Central Arkansas at the Ferrell Center.
Time to take a look at the 2019-20 Bears:
Head coach: Scott Drew (17th season) – 316-209; 336-220 (18 overall seasons)
2018-19 Record: 20-14, 10-8 Big 12 4th; lost to Gonzaga, 83-71 NCAA tournament 2nd round
Returning starters: G Jared Butler, Soph.; F Mark Vital, Jr., F Tristan Clark, Jr.; F Freddie Gillespie, Sr.
Key returners: G Devonte Bandoo, Sr.; F Flo Thamba, Soph.; G/F Matthew Mayer, Soph.
Top newcomers: G Davion Mitchell, Soph. (Auburn); G MaCio Teague, Jr. (UNC Ashville); G Jordan Turner, Fr. (Sunrise Christian HS, Kansas), Houston
Back Court
You want 3-point shooters? Baylor has them. A lot of them. In 2018-19, nearly 41 percent of the Bears’ field goal attempts were from the 3-point line. They made a respectable percentage at 34.1.
It wouldn’t be shocking if that trend continues or goes a little higher to start the season.
But before we dive into that, what’s going to be important for this backcourt is developing a leader who can run the offense and keep everything organized, especially in crunch time. That’s something that graduated Makai Mason did very well.
All eyes will fall to Jared Butler who does have that clutch shot factor in his game. He showed that at times last year. If Butler takes control of that role, the Bears should be fine.
Butler averaged 10.5 points and 2.7 assists per game. He shot 35 percent from the and just 39.5 percent from the field. That second number has to get into the mid-40s. And if he’s going to be the main facilitator, the assist number needs to hover around four. A 1.5-1 assists to turnover ratio would be perfect. The scoring average would be ideal at about 15.
But consider the 3-point shooting that is infused into this lineup. Auburn transfer Davion Mitchell didn’t have a great freshman season shooting it. He was at 28 percent. However, there are higher hopes for him.
UNC-Ashville transfer and one-time Baylor recruiting target MaCio Teague dominated in the Big South in 2017-18. He shot 42.5 percent from the arc and averaged 16.7 points per game. Instant offense. The only question for him is how his game translates from a lower D1 school to the rigors of this schedule.
Devonte Bandoo’s role on this team should also be interesting. He’s going to be the fourth – maybe not in that order – of 3-point shooters teams will have to account for. Bandoo was actually this team’s best long-range shooter at nearly 40 percent last year.
What this quartet is going to have to do a better job is on field goals from within the arc and mid-range. Baylor only shot 44 percent as a team for the season.
It has not been determined if freshman Jordan Turner will be redshirted or not. A decision could come as soon as this week. Sophomore guard/forward Matthew Mayer will be fighting for minutes. If he finds some consistency in his game, then he will get his share.
Front Court
When he went down to a season-ending knee injury in January, Tristan Clark was having a phenomenal season. He was leading the country in field goal percentage at 73.7 percent. It was also a single-season school record.
Drew traditionally likes to run his offense through the post. Clark’s recovery has been slow and steady. But don’t expect his return to dominance and prominence to be automatic once he steps on the court Tuesday. It’s still going to take some time for him.
Once he gets there, Clark has the ability to be a double double player. Look for that starting in December.
Clark’s presence will help those like senior Freddie Gillespie. Gillespie pretty much overachieved but thrived in Drew’s system. He averaged five points and four rebounds per game. That would be acceptable.
Junior Mark Vital is always going to be a rebounding warrior. He’s the best offensive rebounder on this team. He averaged seven and seven in 2018-19. Vital won’t be asked to score as much this year because of the other options. Work on the glass is demanded.
The curious part of this group is going to be sophomore Flo Thamba. He had the furthest way to go last year and was pressed into duty when Clark went down. His contributions were minimal. We’ll just have to see how he fits in to the rotation.
Intangibles
There are two areas where Baylor has to improve: overall shooting and free throw shooting.
Losing Clark really changed how Baylor worked inside the paint. The mid-range game was also spotty. Shooting 44 percent won’t win a Big 12 championship. Shooting 47 percent can put a team in the conversation.
The Bears were sometimes their own worst enemy at the foul line connecting on 67 percent. One game where they couldn’t miss was followed by a game where they couldn’t hit one. That was the surprising part because Drew’s teams have typically been pretty good at the line.
Championship teams have to shoot 70 percent at the line at the least.
Baylor’s defensive approach should also be something to watch. Drew didn’t go to the 1-3-1, 1-1-3 zone as much last year because of the loss of Clark. He played more man than many were used to seeing.
It’s fair to say that it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bears do the same thing in 2019-20.
Baylor was better in the assists-to-turnover ratio last year. It was on the plus side at 13.9 assists to 13.1 turnovers per game. This group should keep that going if not make it better.
2018-19 Schedule
Baylor’s first test will be the Armed Forces Classic Friday in Anchorage, AK against Washington, a team that received votes in both the AP and Coaches Polls. The Huskies, who won the 2018-19 PAC 12 regular season title, were picked third in the preseason poll behind Oregon and Colorado.
The Myrtle Beach Invitational Nov. 21-24 is one where a potential date with Villanova awaits. The Bears and Wildcats are on opposite sides of the bracket. The Bears start off with Ohio and then play either Utah or Coastal Carolina. That tournament’s field also features Mississippi State, a program that made the NCAA tournament and whom Baylor saw in the NIT in 2018.
The return game with Arizona, ranked No. 21 and No. 17 in both preseason polls, is Dec. 7, an 11:00 a.m. game at the Ferrell Center. And if you’re looking ahead, that would run opposite of the football team potentially playing in the Big 12 championship game.
Meanwhile the Dec. 10 Big East/Big 12 Battle with Butler is at the Ferrell Center. The Bulldogs are expected to have a down season. They are predicted eighth in the Big East preseason poll.
Then there are huge gaps in the schedule. Baylor plays UT-Martin in Houston at the Toyota Center on Dec. 18 and then doesn’t play its last game of 2019 until Dec. 30 against Jackson State.
As for the Big 12 season, a home date with Texas on Jan. 4 opens the two month grind. Then comes the big test, Jan. 7 at Texas Tech and Jan. 11 at Kansas. Baylor plays host to Iowa State on Jan. 15.
The usual Big 12/SEC challenge game will put the Bears in the primetime spotlight as they play at Florida on Jan. 25 in Gainesville, Fl. The Gators begin the season ranked No. 6 in both preseason polls.
Kansas plays in Waco Feb. 22. Texas Tech visits March 2. The Big 12 tournament is March 11-14 in Kansas City. The NCAA tournament begins March 19.
Indeed, this schedule is the kind that a team expected to make a run in March schedules.
2019-20 Forecast
This is going to be a really good team. It will contend for the Big 12 championship. Don’t expect too much from Clark at the beginning. Just let him get into the flow. Same thing goes for this roster which is welcoming three new faces – Turner, Teague and Mitchell – and Drew trying to find lineups that have chemistry. The non-conference schedule is excellent.
While Kansas is predicted to win the Big 12, Baylor has a real shot at claiming the regular season title. But it has to win Jan. 11 in Lawrence, KS – a place it has never won – to do that. This is the team that can do it.
The talent is good enough to play into the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. The talent is good enough to play four games in the NCAA tournament (Elite 8). Can it get to the third weekend, the Final Four April 3-6 at Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta? That depends on matchups and catching some breaks.
Forecast - Baylor wins at least 25 games, finishes second in the Big 12 and plays in the Elite 8.
