By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
Welcome to another addition of Single Digit Flashback. Taking a cue from Baylor’s new tradition of awarding numbers 0-9 to leaders on its team, SicEmSports incorporates that idea into its 10 thoughts from the week that was and the week that is to come.
The RJB will make it succinct this week. Minnesota 34, Green Bay 31 makes this week’s selection pretty easy. The great Gjallarhorn
>0. So my prediction of a 6-6 record looks pretty strong right now. I think Baylor is in pretty good shape to make a bowl in 2021. Tongue in cheek aside, if you truly thought the Thanksgiving weekend for Baylor football came with a possible trip to the Big 12 championship game – it would be the second in three years – then you either knew something that the rest of us didn’t or your eternal optimist prediction is paying off. This isn’t a fluke what Baylor is doing. Consider that the Bears are just 63 seconds away from being 10-1. If Baylor doesn’t make the Big 12 championship game, they’re going to kick themselves for the 30-28 loss where Gerry Bohanon threw the interception as the Bears were trying to position themselves for the game-winning field goal. However, they can’t look back. Even if they don’t play Dec. 4 at AT&T Stadium, they’re probably going to finish 10-2. I don’t expect Texas Tech to give them much of an issue.
>1. So let’s go bowling here. What would a 10-2 record and no appearance in the Big 12 title game get the Bears for all of their hard work? ESPN’s bowl projections are updated weekly. Following this weekend, they have the Bears either going to the Cheez It Bowl Dec. 29 in Orlando (Yes, Cheez It used to sponsor the one in Phoenix that Baylor played at in 2016) to face Pittsburgh. But they could still be in line for New Year’s 6 Bowl. Another projection has them in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1 against Oregon. So even if they don’t play in Arlington, they can put themselves in a spot where they could be a NY6 team.
>2. Obviously, it’s not going to be hard for this team to be motivated this week against the Red Raiders. They have Big 12 title game aspirations. They have double digit win aspirations. They have great postseason aspirations. The question is going to be about getting people back for Saturday and whether that’s realistic. We’ll find out Monday about QB Gerry Bohanon (hamstring) and his availability for Tech. The same could be said for safety Christian Morgan and defensive back Kalon Barnes who didn’t play Saturday against Kansas State. Given how this defense is playing, I don’t Baylor has to rush to get them back. Plus, Tech’s offense got completely shut down by the best defense in the conference in Oklahoma State as it was blanked 23-0. I’m not sure it could muster much of anything against the Bears.
>3. With all of this success comes the wave of attraction other programs have in Baylor head coach Dave Aranda. By now, you’ve seen the national media speculation that he will be or is a candidate for the vacancies at USC, LSU and now Washington. I haven’t seen anything for Florida as that just came open Sunday when prickly Dan Mullen was fired. Obviously, the connection with USC is because he grew up in California. The connection with LSU is because he coached there. That’s just what happens when your job is perceived in many ranks not on the same scale as the aforementioned. I don’t know what will happen. Don’t be surprised if Baylor announces some kind of extension after the season.
>4. In the recklessness that is the coaching hiring/firing season, is wouldn’t a program want to see a prospective coach “prove it” over a couple of more seasons until it felt comfortable pursuing him? Well, it doesn’t work that way anymore. Maybe 10 years ago it would have. But with huge dollars infiltrating the game and the pressure to win becoming more and more paramount college football is becoming just like the NFL. Coaches know they won’t last too long if they aren’t winning quickly. There’s nothing about rebuilding that warrants patience. Ask Jimmy Lake at Washington who was fired after 13 games for matters beyond not winning. Ask Chad Morris when he was at Arkansas and lasted 22 games because he went 4-18 and didn’t win a single SEC game.
>5. But then there’s the flipside. Aranda’s first year was a train wreck at 2-7 with a dismal offense and a strained relationship with offensive coordinator Larry Fedora that caused that relationship to end pretty quickly. Now, he’s got the offense he wants with new OC Jeff Grimes, the defense – remember, this is a pretty veteran roster – is playing at the level probably beyond what he expected and the Bears are now in a great spot for postseason and a huge turnaround year. That’s what makes him immediately attractive.
>6. Besides dollars, the other part playing a role here is the December signing period and the NCAA transfer portal. Athletic directors claim that they want to make this move because they want their new leaders to try and save the class that was already being built. In Texas Tech’s case, that situation was so bad that it had nowhere to go but up. Enter Joey McGuire and James Blanchard. But that’s the exception to this. TCU fired Gary Patterson a week after Tech fired Matt Wells and its AD Jeremiah Donati said the same thing. Well, that’s not working to well because there have been at least four de-commitments. So trying to save anything or rush to get the right players to fit a system by mid-December is not going to be anything substantial. It doesn’t matter if its TCU, Tech, Washington, Florida, USC or LSU. Those programs are going to have to build their classes and use the traditional February first Wednesday signing day to help.
>7. The portal is the other resource. But just because a player enters into the portal, doesn’t mean he’s an automatic hot commodity. There’s a ton of players in there with nowhere to go. Remember, Baylor was very selective on how it used the portal, especially when it came to offensive linemen. While they added Grant Miller and Jacob Gall, they weren’t going to add just to add.
>8. So back to Aranda’s situation. I really don’t know what’s going to happen here. But reading the tea leaves and talking to some people, I think it really depends on what happens at LSU. If AD Scott Woodward gets the big name he wants, then fine. I still believe Aranda’s name is not at the very top but it’s on that list. My only thought about USC is that the reason why Aranda’s name is being shouted more and more out there is because perhaps the attractiveness of the job is not as robust as first thought. We’ll see. As for any new extension and a prohibitive buyout clause that would be attached, just remember that if someone is really motivated to take a head coach – doesn’t matter if it’s Baylor or anywhere else – they’ll find a way to come up with the cash. If they were brash enough to fire their coach halfway through the season, they certainly won’t bat an eye doing the same thing here.
>9. In the meantime, don’t forget Scott Drew’s team is in The Bahamas for Thanksgiving Weekend when the Bears open with Arizona State in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. I don’t think very much of this field between Syracuse, UConn, Michigan State and Auburn. If they beat Arizona State Wednesday, they get the winner of Syracuse-VCU Thanksgiving afternoon or evening. After being held under the cover of ESPN+, you get to see what freshman phenom Kendall Brown is all about.
Let’s make it a great Thanksgiving week.
Publisher
Welcome to another addition of Single Digit Flashback. Taking a cue from Baylor’s new tradition of awarding numbers 0-9 to leaders on its team, SicEmSports incorporates that idea into its 10 thoughts from the week that was and the week that is to come.
The RJB will make it succinct this week. Minnesota 34, Green Bay 31 makes this week’s selection pretty easy. The great Gjallarhorn
>0. So my prediction of a 6-6 record looks pretty strong right now. I think Baylor is in pretty good shape to make a bowl in 2021. Tongue in cheek aside, if you truly thought the Thanksgiving weekend for Baylor football came with a possible trip to the Big 12 championship game – it would be the second in three years – then you either knew something that the rest of us didn’t or your eternal optimist prediction is paying off. This isn’t a fluke what Baylor is doing. Consider that the Bears are just 63 seconds away from being 10-1. If Baylor doesn’t make the Big 12 championship game, they’re going to kick themselves for the 30-28 loss where Gerry Bohanon threw the interception as the Bears were trying to position themselves for the game-winning field goal. However, they can’t look back. Even if they don’t play Dec. 4 at AT&T Stadium, they’re probably going to finish 10-2. I don’t expect Texas Tech to give them much of an issue.
>1. So let’s go bowling here. What would a 10-2 record and no appearance in the Big 12 title game get the Bears for all of their hard work? ESPN’s bowl projections are updated weekly. Following this weekend, they have the Bears either going to the Cheez It Bowl Dec. 29 in Orlando (Yes, Cheez It used to sponsor the one in Phoenix that Baylor played at in 2016) to face Pittsburgh. But they could still be in line for New Year’s 6 Bowl. Another projection has them in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 1 against Oregon. So even if they don’t play in Arlington, they can put themselves in a spot where they could be a NY6 team.
>2. Obviously, it’s not going to be hard for this team to be motivated this week against the Red Raiders. They have Big 12 title game aspirations. They have double digit win aspirations. They have great postseason aspirations. The question is going to be about getting people back for Saturday and whether that’s realistic. We’ll find out Monday about QB Gerry Bohanon (hamstring) and his availability for Tech. The same could be said for safety Christian Morgan and defensive back Kalon Barnes who didn’t play Saturday against Kansas State. Given how this defense is playing, I don’t Baylor has to rush to get them back. Plus, Tech’s offense got completely shut down by the best defense in the conference in Oklahoma State as it was blanked 23-0. I’m not sure it could muster much of anything against the Bears.
>3. With all of this success comes the wave of attraction other programs have in Baylor head coach Dave Aranda. By now, you’ve seen the national media speculation that he will be or is a candidate for the vacancies at USC, LSU and now Washington. I haven’t seen anything for Florida as that just came open Sunday when prickly Dan Mullen was fired. Obviously, the connection with USC is because he grew up in California. The connection with LSU is because he coached there. That’s just what happens when your job is perceived in many ranks not on the same scale as the aforementioned. I don’t know what will happen. Don’t be surprised if Baylor announces some kind of extension after the season.
>4. In the recklessness that is the coaching hiring/firing season, is wouldn’t a program want to see a prospective coach “prove it” over a couple of more seasons until it felt comfortable pursuing him? Well, it doesn’t work that way anymore. Maybe 10 years ago it would have. But with huge dollars infiltrating the game and the pressure to win becoming more and more paramount college football is becoming just like the NFL. Coaches know they won’t last too long if they aren’t winning quickly. There’s nothing about rebuilding that warrants patience. Ask Jimmy Lake at Washington who was fired after 13 games for matters beyond not winning. Ask Chad Morris when he was at Arkansas and lasted 22 games because he went 4-18 and didn’t win a single SEC game.
>5. But then there’s the flipside. Aranda’s first year was a train wreck at 2-7 with a dismal offense and a strained relationship with offensive coordinator Larry Fedora that caused that relationship to end pretty quickly. Now, he’s got the offense he wants with new OC Jeff Grimes, the defense – remember, this is a pretty veteran roster – is playing at the level probably beyond what he expected and the Bears are now in a great spot for postseason and a huge turnaround year. That’s what makes him immediately attractive.
>6. Besides dollars, the other part playing a role here is the December signing period and the NCAA transfer portal. Athletic directors claim that they want to make this move because they want their new leaders to try and save the class that was already being built. In Texas Tech’s case, that situation was so bad that it had nowhere to go but up. Enter Joey McGuire and James Blanchard. But that’s the exception to this. TCU fired Gary Patterson a week after Tech fired Matt Wells and its AD Jeremiah Donati said the same thing. Well, that’s not working to well because there have been at least four de-commitments. So trying to save anything or rush to get the right players to fit a system by mid-December is not going to be anything substantial. It doesn’t matter if its TCU, Tech, Washington, Florida, USC or LSU. Those programs are going to have to build their classes and use the traditional February first Wednesday signing day to help.
>7. The portal is the other resource. But just because a player enters into the portal, doesn’t mean he’s an automatic hot commodity. There’s a ton of players in there with nowhere to go. Remember, Baylor was very selective on how it used the portal, especially when it came to offensive linemen. While they added Grant Miller and Jacob Gall, they weren’t going to add just to add.
>8. So back to Aranda’s situation. I really don’t know what’s going to happen here. But reading the tea leaves and talking to some people, I think it really depends on what happens at LSU. If AD Scott Woodward gets the big name he wants, then fine. I still believe Aranda’s name is not at the very top but it’s on that list. My only thought about USC is that the reason why Aranda’s name is being shouted more and more out there is because perhaps the attractiveness of the job is not as robust as first thought. We’ll see. As for any new extension and a prohibitive buyout clause that would be attached, just remember that if someone is really motivated to take a head coach – doesn’t matter if it’s Baylor or anywhere else – they’ll find a way to come up with the cash. If they were brash enough to fire their coach halfway through the season, they certainly won’t bat an eye doing the same thing here.
>9. In the meantime, don’t forget Scott Drew’s team is in The Bahamas for Thanksgiving Weekend when the Bears open with Arizona State in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament. I don’t think very much of this field between Syracuse, UConn, Michigan State and Auburn. If they beat Arizona State Wednesday, they get the winner of Syracuse-VCU Thanksgiving afternoon or evening. After being held under the cover of ESPN+, you get to see what freshman phenom Kendall Brown is all about.
Let’s make it a great Thanksgiving week.
