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GAME PREVIEW: No. 1 Baylor (23-2) vs. No. 9 Wisconsin (18-12); Q&A with Badger Blitz - 1:40 pm CBS

k lonnquist

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Mar 10, 2009
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By Kevin Lonnquist
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SicEmSports and our Wisconsin Rivals Colleague Jake Kocorowski from Badger Blitz teamed up on Q & As in anticipation of Sunday’s second round matchup between No. 1 Baylor and No. 9 Wisconsin at 1:40 pm at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

SicEmSports to Badger Blitz

Q: Was everybody as stunned as I was with this performance over UNC. Maybe not so much that the Badgers won but how they won. They got any shot they wanted. The best they've looked since January?

A: I'd say that's probably the best game they've played all season, based on expectations heading in and execution during the game. The team shot much better from the field and from three-point range (50.8% and 48.1%, respectively), and then the Badgers actually won the battle over the Tar Heels in total rebounds, which were the No. 3 program in the nation in that particular category. UW also contained UNC -- the No. 1 program in the country in offensive rebounds -- to just 12 in that statistic.

The senior guards in Brad Davison and D'Mitrik Trice scored 50 of the team's 85 points on a combined 18-of-30 shooting, and five players grabbed at least five boards. On top of that, the Badgers also got to the line more and connected from the charity stripe. In my eyes, it was definitely the most complete effort we've seen from the team in some time, and the most impressive win of the season given its performance the last couple of months.


Q: This is a veteran team, when it's been right, what's worked well for it? What have been the issues that hurt them when they went 0-9 against ranked teams since January?


A: When Wisconsin's "on" for the full or most of the 40 minutes in regulation, I feel they can compete with anyone in the nation and a top-10 caliber team. Head coach Greg Gard preaches defense for a program that ranks 13th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency heading into Sunday's matchup. As seen against North Carolina, their shooting touch from deep can very much carry them to a W if they're hitting (which they made 13-of-27 from beyond the arc a day ago). If they're connecting from three-point range, that will only make them more dangerous. Not to mention Wisconsin is tied for the best in the nation in the least amount of turnovers committed per game (8.9), and they're currently eighth in Division I in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.51). If they're not stagnant but passing the ball and having motion, that has created open opportunities on the offensive end.

Of late, it feels like Wisconsin has played with more energy as well, and it's shown with better performances the last few games. That's big for the team, and we'll see how any Badger faithful in the stands can help with that.

When Wisconsin's not playing well, a few things immediately jump to mind. First, there could be defensive blips and they're not rebounding well, which can lead to opponents' second-chance points. The Badgers have had trouble against big men like Iowa's Luka Garza and Illinois's Kofi Cockburn. When they're off, the players also are not shooting well, particularly from deep. That includes actually getting good looks during some stretches the past couple of months, but they just can't put the ball through the hoop.


Q: D'Mitrik Trice has been really solid for this program over the years. Seems like he's been there forever. What's been the key to his season?

A: Trice's evolution really started, I feel, at the end of last season, where he emerged as the Wisconsin point guard and elevated his game on all levels. Heading into Sunday's matchup against Baylor, the graduate guard averages 13.9 points, 3.4 rebounds and just about four assists per game while shooting 41.6% from the field (38% from three-point range). He also protects the ball while dishing it out to his teammates with his 2.28 assist-to-turnover ratio through 30 games.

Trice, one of the leaders of this team, has shown that he can make key shots this season, which includes his 19-point fury in the final 2:30 of a close Feb. 27 loss against Illinois. He looks to distribute the ball but can also hold it later in the shot clock and work to create an opportunity as well. I think he can continue being a presence, even against Baylor, if he combines his ability to dish it out to teammates but also works to get his shots.


Q: Greg Gard's teams have typically pretty tough over the years on the defensive end, what do they see as the challenge against Baylor's ability to shoot 3 and the way to defend that?

A: I actually asked Trice about Baylor's three-point shooting on Saturday afternoon after you sent this question in terms of what he has seen on film from the Bears that stands out and how to defend what the Big 12 program presents from deep.

Trice noted the program's success from beyond the arc and "that will be a big key, stopping them from getting those open looks."

"I feel like they haven't played a team like ours, a tough, gritty, defensive-minded team yet this year, so it's definitely gonna pose a challenge with their guards," Trice continued. "They're really athletic and long, and they get after it on both ends of the floor, so we're just gonna have to use their weaknesses against them and turn that into offense, and then getting stops on the defensive end."

I think for Wisconsin as well, and kind of going off of what Trice said, it has to ensure that communication is paramount on the floor. Not allowing missing assignments or crossed wires that could open up Mitchell and Butler to receive opportunities to have clean shots, both of whom are shooting at least over 41% from three-point range this season, will heavily influence the game.


Q: What's it going to take for the Badgers to pull the upset Sunday afternoon?

A: I think if Wisconsin can replicate what it did against North Carolina, it will be a fun game to watch. That's saying a lot when facing a program that's shooting nearly 49% from the field, over 41% from three-point range and is 17th in the nation in offensive rebounds (12.9). That being said, the Badgers contained the Tar Heels in areas that heavily favored the ACC blue blood on way to a blow out. I don't think a 23-point win over a No. 1 seed will be the outcome, but I think UW can be extremely competitive if they stick to their defensive prowess and make their shots.

Obviously, Wisconsin will have to limit Baylor's three-point shooting (Gard's team currently allows opponents to hit just over 33% of its three-point attempts) while also boxing out and not allowing the Bears an opportunity to crash the offensive glass and grab those extra opportunities.

I feel Baylor, which scores over 84 points per contest and features Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell, and MaCio Teague, will definitely put up some points and challenge Wisconsin in a bunch of ways. If the Badgers can control the tempo, contain the Bears' three-point success enough, grab those boards (and have the players on the court grab the loose balls), then shoot well, they have a chance. We'll see if UW can string together another complete contest.


Badger Blitz to SicEmSports

Q: Baylor has been fantastic this season, losing only two games and
dispensed No. 16 seed Hartford on Friday. How was this team developed
this season to be one of the best in men's college basketball?


A: Well it really started last year when the Bears held the No. 1 ranking for seven weeks and had a school record and Big 12-record 23-game winning streak. They then won at Kansas for the first time. Everything pointed to them being a No. 1 seed last year until the NCAA tournament was canceled.

This is a veteran team between AP Big 12 POY and first-team All-American Jared Butler and other All-American guards Davion Mitchell (Auburn transfer) and MaCio Teague (UNC-Ashville transfer). They just know each other so well. While the Bears shoot a great percentage, the defense led the charge. Until the pause more than half
of their opponent's turnover were on-ball steals that Baylor used in its transition game.

They were expectedly rusty coming off the pause. The loss at Kansas and then just not being in sync defensively. That led to them getting ousted by Oklahoma State in the Big 12 semifinals. It was Hartford. But to me, they did look a little more like the team between late November and early February.


Q: Looking at Baylor, they lead the nation in three-point shooting and
are fourth in points per game. That's on top of being ranked third and fourth in KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency and offensive rebound percentage, respectively. Who and what makes the Bears so potent on that side of the court?

A: Butler, Teague and Mitchell are all in double figures at 17, 16 and 14 respectively. Baylor's spacing allows for that extra pass. I have a good shot. You have a great shot. They've rotated all season as to who leads in scoring. Mitchell's emergence on offense has made a difference.

The offensive rebounding part comes from senior Mark Vital who does all the little things to keep possessions alive.

Q: Defensively, Baylor gives up 66 points per contest and has forced
opponents on average to commit 17.6 turnovers per game. KenPom ranks the Bears third in the nation in defensive turnover percentage. What does the program do so well in those areas to give others troubles? How do you feel they'll defend Wisconsin on Sunday?

I expect the Bears to stick with their man defense like they have all season. They will switch a lot. However, I do expect Teague to pick up Trice. Mitchell is arguably the best on-ball defender in the country. Don't look for any zone.

But the turnovers is a result of them just creating consistent ball pressure. They will occasionally trap. However, they trust each other will communicate. Until recently, they were really good in getting back in transition defense. That's one area where they struggled against the Cowboys. I'll be interested to see how that looks Sunday should it be a part of the game.


Q: Where do you feel Baylor will have an edge against Wisconsin?

A: It's going to be a case of Baylor just making the ball go faster than how the Badgers can react to it. When you have three legitimate scorers, you can't just lock down on one. I think Baylor's athleticism is going to be an advantage just because of their quickness. Just have this feeling Baylor will make it tough on Wisconsin's guard to develop
a rhythm. Take nothing away from Wisconsin because the Badgers are typically a very high IQ team.

Q: Vice versa, where do you feel the Badgers could give the Bears some
issues as both teams battle for a Sweet 16 berth?

A: I think the one thing is if Gard wants to attack Baylor in the paint with Micah Potter and then some help and make that a plan, that could give the Bears some trouble. Baylor has had issues defending the low post. It started at Kansas when David McCormack scored 22.

Most coaches believe one of the ways to beat Baylor is to neutralize the transition game off the turnovers. As I mentioned above, that was a big part of things. When Baylor came back from the pause, it wasn't a big thing. I think Wisconsin would like to keep this in mid-60s to low 70s to give itself a chance.

I do expect Baylor to win this just because I think the week off to practice before the tournament was important for it. But this is the NCAA tournament, so who knows.
 
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