By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
National Semifinal – Final Four
No. 1 Baylor (26-2) vs. No. 2 Houston (28-3)
Day/Time: Saturday/4:14 pm CDT
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV/Radio: CBS/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Houston leads, 38-15; first meeting since 2002-03
A win would…: The winner advances to the National Championship Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium to face the winner of the second National Semifinal between No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 UCLA.
Final Four Path
Baylor (South Region Champions): d. No. 16 Hartford, 79-55 (first round); d. No. 9 Wisconsin, 76-63 (second round), d. No. 5 Villanova, 62-51 (Sweet 16); d. No. 3 Arkansas, 81-72 (Elite 8)
Houston (Midwest Region Champions): d. Cleveland State, 87-56 (first round); d. No. 10 Rutgers, 63-60 (second round), d. No. 11 Syracuse, 62-46 (Sweet 16); d. No. 12 Oregon State, 67-61 (Elite 8)
Top Players
Baylor: Jared Butler, 6-3, PG, Jr. (16.5 ppg, 40.4% 3-point); MaCio Teague, 6-4, G, Sr. (15.9 ppg, 47.7%); Davion Mitchell, 6-2, G, Jr. (14.0 ppg, 45.0% 3-point)
Houston: Quentin Grimes, 6-5, G, Jr. (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg); Marcus Sasser, 6-1, G, Soph. (13.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg); DeJon Jarreau, 6-5, G, Sr. (10.8 ppg, 4.4 apg)
Rankings
Baylor: No. 3 AP & Coaches
Houston: No. 6 AP & Coaches
Coaches
Baylor: Scott Drew (388-226 19 seasons; 368-215 18 seasons at Baylor)
Houston: Kelvin Sampson (667-333 32 seasons; 167-63 seven seasons at Houston)
Notable I
Baylor: Playing in its first Final Four since 1950; 3rd overall appearance
Houston: Making its 6th Final Four appearance; 16th program to make that many appearances; Cougars are the first team to make the Final Four by beating four double digit seeds
Notable II
Baylor assistant Alvin Brooks III and Houston assistant Alvin Brooks will have the rarity of father vs. son in this tournament. The elder Brooks will be leaving the Houston program after the Final Four to take over at Lamar.
Championships
Baylor: Big 12 regular season champions
Houston: American Athletic tournament champions
About Baylor: The Bears met the season pre-season expectations as they began 17-0 before the three COVID-19 week pause (18-0 to start a season). With one of the nation’s best back courts between Butler, Teague and Butler, they rarely trailed except for a little here and there. There was a bench infusion between Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler. Fusing that with veteran Mark Vital, the Bears put together a solid rotation of eight. They ran away from the rest of the Big 12 and eventually coasted to their first conference championship in 71 years. What set them back was the pause that pretty much wiped out all of February. They were rusty getting back, especially on the defensive end that included losses at Kansas and to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament. They went 5-2 before the NCAA tournament. However, a week off seemed to be the right medicine. The Bears were active on the defensive end again forcing live ball turnovers and using that for their transition game. They were impressive in their first two NCAA tournament games against Hartford and Wisconsin. Then they found another way to win by attacking the paint in the Sweet 16 victory over Villanova. In a game they were never tied or trailed, the Bears held off several Arkansas runs to win the South Region championship. A pair of 3-pointers from Teague around the 4-minute mark were the difference. Their defense has been outstanding in the tournament. The Bears have 38 steals off 69 opponent turnovers and have scored 81 points off those turnovers.
About Houston: With Sampson running this program, it was a matter of time before it climbed into this position. The Cougars were preseason AAC favorites and lived up to the billing. They started with solid wins over Boise State and Texas Tech and then added to it with a good win over South Carolina. Houston built this team on the strength of Kansas transfer Grimes and UMass transfer Jarreau. However, the Cougars actually finished second in the American with losses to Tulsa (65-64), East Carolina (82-73) and Wichita State (68-63). The ECU loss was probably the most bizarre as the Cougars had a horrible shooting night. But this team rebounded and won the American postseason tournament in Fort Worth. There is length in the back court led by Grimes and Jarreau. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country allowing just 57.6 points per game (second in the country) and limiting opponents to only 37 percent overall shooting (best in the country) and 28 percent from the 3-point line. The Cougars also dominate the class against their opponents by more than nine per game (40.9-31.5). However, they can be an erratic offensive team at 43.7 percent for the year and 35.4 percent from the arc. Their NCAA tournament run was in jeopardy in the second round against Rutgers. The Cougars trailed inside the final minute but found a way to pull it out. Grimes is actually a better 3-point shooter (41.3) than overall shooter (40.8). Sasser is a dynamic offensive player but he tends to be streaky. It’s a case of which Sasser the Cougars are going to get. Houston is not a big team. It maxes out at 6-8 among five different players.
How Baylor wins: It’s a formula that’s worked pretty well for the last two years. Let your best players be your best players. That’s Butler, Mitchell and Teague. As the Baylor faithful has seen, if one is off, the others usually find a way to pick up the slack. That said, Butler needs to be better if the Bears are going to push on to play for a national championship on Monday. He’s just not been very good tournament in this tournament shooting 34.5 percent (18-52) along with some stunning turnovers. The Bears’ defense will point this thing in the right direction. Expect Mitchell to pick up Grimes. If Baylor goes into a matchup zone like it did against Arkansas that would be a bit surprising. This is a game where the Bears need to be about even on the glass, get the same production from the bench as it has seen between Matthew Mayer, Adam Flagler and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and keep the turnover numbers at a premium level. They’ve been very good in that department with just 29 turnovers committed in the first four games.
How Houston wins: To start, the Cougars are going to have to make this a grind and keep this game into the low 70s if possible. They must be physical and push Baylor’s guards around in order to deliver the message they won’t be intimidated. They also must have a great shooting performance. They haven’t done that so far shooting 38.8 percent in the first four games and only 31.8 percent from the arc. Grimes is less than 40 percent from the field. Sasser is shooting 28 percent. Jarreau is at 38 percent. Each has to be “on” and take advantage of any mistakes Baylor’s defense opens. Houston must own the glass like it has in the tournament (+11) and give itself numerous second chance points opportunities. That’s probably the best way it can pull off this upset to win this game.
Baylor Key Stat: Baylor is 22-0 when it has led a game at the half this season
Houston Key Stat: The Cougars have played only one ranked team, then No. 13-14 Texas Tech, a 64-53 victory
Prediction: Baylor 74, Houston 62
Publisher
National Semifinal – Final Four
No. 1 Baylor (26-2) vs. No. 2 Houston (28-3)
Day/Time: Saturday/4:14 pm CDT
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV/Radio: CBS/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Houston leads, 38-15; first meeting since 2002-03
A win would…: The winner advances to the National Championship Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium to face the winner of the second National Semifinal between No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 11 UCLA.
Final Four Path
Baylor (South Region Champions): d. No. 16 Hartford, 79-55 (first round); d. No. 9 Wisconsin, 76-63 (second round), d. No. 5 Villanova, 62-51 (Sweet 16); d. No. 3 Arkansas, 81-72 (Elite 8)
Houston (Midwest Region Champions): d. Cleveland State, 87-56 (first round); d. No. 10 Rutgers, 63-60 (second round), d. No. 11 Syracuse, 62-46 (Sweet 16); d. No. 12 Oregon State, 67-61 (Elite 8)
Top Players
Baylor: Jared Butler, 6-3, PG, Jr. (16.5 ppg, 40.4% 3-point); MaCio Teague, 6-4, G, Sr. (15.9 ppg, 47.7%); Davion Mitchell, 6-2, G, Jr. (14.0 ppg, 45.0% 3-point)
Houston: Quentin Grimes, 6-5, G, Jr. (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg); Marcus Sasser, 6-1, G, Soph. (13.5 ppg, 2.6 rpg); DeJon Jarreau, 6-5, G, Sr. (10.8 ppg, 4.4 apg)
Rankings
Baylor: No. 3 AP & Coaches
Houston: No. 6 AP & Coaches
Coaches
Baylor: Scott Drew (388-226 19 seasons; 368-215 18 seasons at Baylor)
Houston: Kelvin Sampson (667-333 32 seasons; 167-63 seven seasons at Houston)
Notable I
Baylor: Playing in its first Final Four since 1950; 3rd overall appearance
Houston: Making its 6th Final Four appearance; 16th program to make that many appearances; Cougars are the first team to make the Final Four by beating four double digit seeds
Notable II
Baylor assistant Alvin Brooks III and Houston assistant Alvin Brooks will have the rarity of father vs. son in this tournament. The elder Brooks will be leaving the Houston program after the Final Four to take over at Lamar.
Championships
Baylor: Big 12 regular season champions
Houston: American Athletic tournament champions
About Baylor: The Bears met the season pre-season expectations as they began 17-0 before the three COVID-19 week pause (18-0 to start a season). With one of the nation’s best back courts between Butler, Teague and Butler, they rarely trailed except for a little here and there. There was a bench infusion between Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler. Fusing that with veteran Mark Vital, the Bears put together a solid rotation of eight. They ran away from the rest of the Big 12 and eventually coasted to their first conference championship in 71 years. What set them back was the pause that pretty much wiped out all of February. They were rusty getting back, especially on the defensive end that included losses at Kansas and to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament. They went 5-2 before the NCAA tournament. However, a week off seemed to be the right medicine. The Bears were active on the defensive end again forcing live ball turnovers and using that for their transition game. They were impressive in their first two NCAA tournament games against Hartford and Wisconsin. Then they found another way to win by attacking the paint in the Sweet 16 victory over Villanova. In a game they were never tied or trailed, the Bears held off several Arkansas runs to win the South Region championship. A pair of 3-pointers from Teague around the 4-minute mark were the difference. Their defense has been outstanding in the tournament. The Bears have 38 steals off 69 opponent turnovers and have scored 81 points off those turnovers.
About Houston: With Sampson running this program, it was a matter of time before it climbed into this position. The Cougars were preseason AAC favorites and lived up to the billing. They started with solid wins over Boise State and Texas Tech and then added to it with a good win over South Carolina. Houston built this team on the strength of Kansas transfer Grimes and UMass transfer Jarreau. However, the Cougars actually finished second in the American with losses to Tulsa (65-64), East Carolina (82-73) and Wichita State (68-63). The ECU loss was probably the most bizarre as the Cougars had a horrible shooting night. But this team rebounded and won the American postseason tournament in Fort Worth. There is length in the back court led by Grimes and Jarreau. Houston is one of the best defensive teams in the country allowing just 57.6 points per game (second in the country) and limiting opponents to only 37 percent overall shooting (best in the country) and 28 percent from the 3-point line. The Cougars also dominate the class against their opponents by more than nine per game (40.9-31.5). However, they can be an erratic offensive team at 43.7 percent for the year and 35.4 percent from the arc. Their NCAA tournament run was in jeopardy in the second round against Rutgers. The Cougars trailed inside the final minute but found a way to pull it out. Grimes is actually a better 3-point shooter (41.3) than overall shooter (40.8). Sasser is a dynamic offensive player but he tends to be streaky. It’s a case of which Sasser the Cougars are going to get. Houston is not a big team. It maxes out at 6-8 among five different players.
How Baylor wins: It’s a formula that’s worked pretty well for the last two years. Let your best players be your best players. That’s Butler, Mitchell and Teague. As the Baylor faithful has seen, if one is off, the others usually find a way to pick up the slack. That said, Butler needs to be better if the Bears are going to push on to play for a national championship on Monday. He’s just not been very good tournament in this tournament shooting 34.5 percent (18-52) along with some stunning turnovers. The Bears’ defense will point this thing in the right direction. Expect Mitchell to pick up Grimes. If Baylor goes into a matchup zone like it did against Arkansas that would be a bit surprising. This is a game where the Bears need to be about even on the glass, get the same production from the bench as it has seen between Matthew Mayer, Adam Flagler and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and keep the turnover numbers at a premium level. They’ve been very good in that department with just 29 turnovers committed in the first four games.
How Houston wins: To start, the Cougars are going to have to make this a grind and keep this game into the low 70s if possible. They must be physical and push Baylor’s guards around in order to deliver the message they won’t be intimidated. They also must have a great shooting performance. They haven’t done that so far shooting 38.8 percent in the first four games and only 31.8 percent from the arc. Grimes is less than 40 percent from the field. Sasser is shooting 28 percent. Jarreau is at 38 percent. Each has to be “on” and take advantage of any mistakes Baylor’s defense opens. Houston must own the glass like it has in the tournament (+11) and give itself numerous second chance points opportunities. That’s probably the best way it can pull off this upset to win this game.
Baylor Key Stat: Baylor is 22-0 when it has led a game at the half this season
Houston Key Stat: The Cougars have played only one ranked team, then No. 13-14 Texas Tech, a 64-53 victory
Prediction: Baylor 74, Houston 62
