By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
South Region Final (Elite 8)
No. 1 Baylor (25-2) vs. No. 3 Arkansas (25-6)
Day/Time: Monday/8:57 pm
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV/Radio: CBS/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Arkansas leads, 96-47; fist meeting since 2009 (Baylor won)
A win would…: The winner advances to the Final Four Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium to face the winner of the Midwest Region Final between Houston-Oregon State.
South Region Path
Baylor: d. No. 16 Hartford, 79-55 (first round); d. No. 9 Wisconsin, 76-63 (second round), d. No. 5 Villanova, 62-51 (Sweet 16)
Arkansas: d. No. 14 Colgate, 85-68 (first round); d. No. 6 Texas Tech, 68-66 (second round); d. No. Oral Roberts, 72-20 (Sweet 16)
Top Players
Baylor: Jared Butler, 6-3, PG, Jr. (16.6 ppg, 39.9% 3-point); MaCio Teague, 6-4, G, Sr. (15.7 ppg, 47.9%); Davion Mitchell, 6-2, G, Jr. (14.1 ppg, 45.0% 3-point)
Arkansas: Moses Mooday, 6-6, G, Fr. (17.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg); Justin Smith, 6-7, GT Sr. (13.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg); Jalen Tate, 6-6, G, GT Sr. (10.9, 3.9 apg)
Rankings
Baylor: No. 3 AP & Coaches
Arkansas: No. 10 AP & Coaches
Coaches
Baylor: Scott Drew (387-226 19 seasons; 367-215 18 seasons at Baylor)
Arkansas: Eric Musselman (155-52 six seasons; 45-18 two seasons at Arkansas)
Notable
Baylor: Playing in its third Elite 8 since 2010
Arkansas: The 1994 National Champions are in their first Elite 8 since the 1995 National Championship game appearance
Championships
Baylor: Big 12 regular season champions
Arkansas: Finished second in the SEC
About Baylor: The Bears met the season pre-season expectations as they began 17-0 before the three COVID-19 week pause. With one of the nation’s best back courts between Butler, Teague and Butler, they rarely trailed except for a little here and there. There was a bench infusion between Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler. Fusing that with veteran Mark Vital, the Bears put together a solid rotation of eight. They ran away from the rest of the Big 12 and eventually coasted to their first conference championship in 71 years. What set them back was the pause that pretty much wiped out all of February. They were rusty getting back, especially on the defensive end that included losses at Kansas and to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament. They went 5-2 before the NCAA tournament. However, a week off seemed to be the right medicine. The Bears were active on the defensive end again forcing live ball turnovers and using that for their transition game. They were impressive in their first two NCAA tournament games against Hartford and Wisconsin. Then they found another way to win by attacking the paint in the Sweet 16 victory over Villanova. Their defense has been outstanding in the tournament. The Bears have 29 steals off 54 opponent turnovers and have scored 60 points off those turnovers.
About Arkansas: The Razorbacks began the season in the “Others Receiving Votes” category and started quickly at 9-0 against a relatively soft non-conference schedule. They then started the SEC season poorly at 1-4. They were sputtering. But a 75-73 victory over Auburn ignited a huge run where the Razorbacks won 12 consecutive SEC games including an impressive 81-66 win over regular season champion Alabama and go into the SEC tournament as the No. 2 seed. However, they fell to LSU in tournament semifinals. This is a team that embraces a high volume possession type of game. The Hogs average 81.7 points but will yield 70.0 points per game. The have taken more than 2,000 shots. They will turn it over at nearly 13 per game. But they average 14.6 assists. Defensively, they create havoc collecting nearly eight steals per game. Opponents are turning it over 15.3 times per. That’s just like Baylor where more than half of the opposing turnovers are created from steals. Arkansas is a solid shooting team (45.1 percent), not great from the arc (33.3) but good at the foul line (74.0) Moody is a one-and-done and is super long with a great wingspan. He can create his own shot. Tate, a grad transfer from Northern Kentucky, has settled in to run the offense. Smith, a grad transfer from Indiana, has become a solid 4 on the wing. Freshman guard Devontae Davis has been hot in the tournament. He not only hit the game-winner against Oral Roberts, he’s been in double figures in all three games. This team is a mix of veterans and highly touted freshmen coming together. They can go three or four deep on the bench. The Razorbacks have lived right in the NCAA tournament as both Texas Tech and ORU missed shots that either would have tied and forced overtime and won.
How Baylor wins: Well, you would have thought that this team would need the 3-ball to win. Turned out it didn’t in the win over Villanova. Now, maybe that’s a one-off type of scenario. Baylor is going to need that shot because in today’s game 31.8 in the tournament may not get you hardware. What Baylor can do is play its lock down defense to create more live ball turnover situations. I mentioned above about the productivity for doing. Keep turning the Razorbacks over. Expect Mitchell to start at the top like he always does and if that means he draws Tate or Moody then the switches will come after that. This could be an up-and-down game because both teams are in the 80s. Still, keep Arkansas below 70 and Baylor is into its first Final Four in 71 years.
How Arkansas wins: As a team that’s so-so from the arc, the Razorbacks are going to have to shoot a far better percentage. That’s going to have to be around 38 percent. Plus, its youngsters in Moody and Davis are going to have to not let the moment be too big. They are freshmen but they aren’t after 31 games. They’re going to have to be as mentally tough as Butler, Mitchell and Teague. But if you’re going to take someone away from Baylor, stick with Butler who is really having a bad shooting tournament at 14-41 (34.1). And like other teams have attempted to do but failed, Arkansas is going to have to be strong with the ball and keep Baylor’s transition game from being a major factor. The Razorbacks should push the Bears.
Baylor Key Stat: The Bears are ninth in the nation in turnovers forced at 17.4
Arkansas Key Stat: In his last five NCAA tournament victories, Musselman-led teams between Nevada and Arkansas trailed by double digits at some point in the game.
Prediction: Baylor 77, Arkansas 67
Publisher
South Region Final (Elite 8)
No. 1 Baylor (25-2) vs. No. 3 Arkansas (25-6)
Day/Time: Monday/8:57 pm
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV/Radio: CBS/ESPN Central Texas
Series: Arkansas leads, 96-47; fist meeting since 2009 (Baylor won)
A win would…: The winner advances to the Final Four Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium to face the winner of the Midwest Region Final between Houston-Oregon State.
South Region Path
Baylor: d. No. 16 Hartford, 79-55 (first round); d. No. 9 Wisconsin, 76-63 (second round), d. No. 5 Villanova, 62-51 (Sweet 16)
Arkansas: d. No. 14 Colgate, 85-68 (first round); d. No. 6 Texas Tech, 68-66 (second round); d. No. Oral Roberts, 72-20 (Sweet 16)
Top Players
Baylor: Jared Butler, 6-3, PG, Jr. (16.6 ppg, 39.9% 3-point); MaCio Teague, 6-4, G, Sr. (15.7 ppg, 47.9%); Davion Mitchell, 6-2, G, Jr. (14.1 ppg, 45.0% 3-point)
Arkansas: Moses Mooday, 6-6, G, Fr. (17.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg); Justin Smith, 6-7, GT Sr. (13.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg); Jalen Tate, 6-6, G, GT Sr. (10.9, 3.9 apg)
Rankings
Baylor: No. 3 AP & Coaches
Arkansas: No. 10 AP & Coaches
Coaches
Baylor: Scott Drew (387-226 19 seasons; 367-215 18 seasons at Baylor)
Arkansas: Eric Musselman (155-52 six seasons; 45-18 two seasons at Arkansas)
Notable
Baylor: Playing in its third Elite 8 since 2010
Arkansas: The 1994 National Champions are in their first Elite 8 since the 1995 National Championship game appearance
Championships
Baylor: Big 12 regular season champions
Arkansas: Finished second in the SEC
About Baylor: The Bears met the season pre-season expectations as they began 17-0 before the three COVID-19 week pause. With one of the nation’s best back courts between Butler, Teague and Butler, they rarely trailed except for a little here and there. There was a bench infusion between Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, Matthew Mayer and Adam Flagler. Fusing that with veteran Mark Vital, the Bears put together a solid rotation of eight. They ran away from the rest of the Big 12 and eventually coasted to their first conference championship in 71 years. What set them back was the pause that pretty much wiped out all of February. They were rusty getting back, especially on the defensive end that included losses at Kansas and to Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament. They went 5-2 before the NCAA tournament. However, a week off seemed to be the right medicine. The Bears were active on the defensive end again forcing live ball turnovers and using that for their transition game. They were impressive in their first two NCAA tournament games against Hartford and Wisconsin. Then they found another way to win by attacking the paint in the Sweet 16 victory over Villanova. Their defense has been outstanding in the tournament. The Bears have 29 steals off 54 opponent turnovers and have scored 60 points off those turnovers.
About Arkansas: The Razorbacks began the season in the “Others Receiving Votes” category and started quickly at 9-0 against a relatively soft non-conference schedule. They then started the SEC season poorly at 1-4. They were sputtering. But a 75-73 victory over Auburn ignited a huge run where the Razorbacks won 12 consecutive SEC games including an impressive 81-66 win over regular season champion Alabama and go into the SEC tournament as the No. 2 seed. However, they fell to LSU in tournament semifinals. This is a team that embraces a high volume possession type of game. The Hogs average 81.7 points but will yield 70.0 points per game. The have taken more than 2,000 shots. They will turn it over at nearly 13 per game. But they average 14.6 assists. Defensively, they create havoc collecting nearly eight steals per game. Opponents are turning it over 15.3 times per. That’s just like Baylor where more than half of the opposing turnovers are created from steals. Arkansas is a solid shooting team (45.1 percent), not great from the arc (33.3) but good at the foul line (74.0) Moody is a one-and-done and is super long with a great wingspan. He can create his own shot. Tate, a grad transfer from Northern Kentucky, has settled in to run the offense. Smith, a grad transfer from Indiana, has become a solid 4 on the wing. Freshman guard Devontae Davis has been hot in the tournament. He not only hit the game-winner against Oral Roberts, he’s been in double figures in all three games. This team is a mix of veterans and highly touted freshmen coming together. They can go three or four deep on the bench. The Razorbacks have lived right in the NCAA tournament as both Texas Tech and ORU missed shots that either would have tied and forced overtime and won.
How Baylor wins: Well, you would have thought that this team would need the 3-ball to win. Turned out it didn’t in the win over Villanova. Now, maybe that’s a one-off type of scenario. Baylor is going to need that shot because in today’s game 31.8 in the tournament may not get you hardware. What Baylor can do is play its lock down defense to create more live ball turnover situations. I mentioned above about the productivity for doing. Keep turning the Razorbacks over. Expect Mitchell to start at the top like he always does and if that means he draws Tate or Moody then the switches will come after that. This could be an up-and-down game because both teams are in the 80s. Still, keep Arkansas below 70 and Baylor is into its first Final Four in 71 years.
How Arkansas wins: As a team that’s so-so from the arc, the Razorbacks are going to have to shoot a far better percentage. That’s going to have to be around 38 percent. Plus, its youngsters in Moody and Davis are going to have to not let the moment be too big. They are freshmen but they aren’t after 31 games. They’re going to have to be as mentally tough as Butler, Mitchell and Teague. But if you’re going to take someone away from Baylor, stick with Butler who is really having a bad shooting tournament at 14-41 (34.1). And like other teams have attempted to do but failed, Arkansas is going to have to be strong with the ball and keep Baylor’s transition game from being a major factor. The Razorbacks should push the Bears.
Baylor Key Stat: The Bears are ninth in the nation in turnovers forced at 17.4
Arkansas Key Stat: In his last five NCAA tournament victories, Musselman-led teams between Nevada and Arkansas trailed by double digits at some point in the game.
Prediction: Baylor 77, Arkansas 67
