By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
Baylor (5-3, 3-2) at Oklahoma (5-3, 2-3)
Site: Owen Field/Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Time/Day: 2:00 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: ESPN+/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Oklahoma -3.5
Series: Oklahoma leads, 28-4
The November Big 12 championship game appearance tournament is here. For those participants who already have two league losses, it is a single-elimination format.
Baylor is among the three teams involved in the highwire category. The Bears are joined by Texas and Oklahoma State. One loss and the season transforms from the chase to playing for the best bowl possible.
With the impressive 45-17 victory at Texas Tech last Saturday allowing for November to be a high-stakes month, Saturday’s trip to Norman, OK takes it to the next level.
Until they’re on the wrong side of one of these games, the Bears are in a win-or-else mode.
“For us to go out and play the way we did, I’m way proud of the team,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “There are so many examples of here’s something in practice, here’s a drill, here it is showing up in a team period, and here it is showing up in a game. We continue to build with that thought in mind, I think just really keeps us focused on a process and gets us better and better, which we’re going to need to be for this next one.”
What’s equally important is for this team is to keep stringing these types of performances together. Texas Tech was reminiscent of the 2021 season. This team must validate that last week wasn’t a one-off.
Injury wise, the Bears lost tight end Drake Dabney (broken leg) for the rest of the season. There is some hope running back Taye McWilliams can return in some kind of role since Sept. 10 against BYU. Running back Sqwirl Williams (concussion) and wide receiver Monaray Baldwin (hamstring) didn’t play last week. Their status for Saturday is questionable.
Here are some key elements to look for
>Both running back Richard Reese and quarterback Blake Shapen are nearing season milestones. At 791 yards, Reese needs 209 to reach 1,000. With 1,819, Shapen needs 181 to eclipse 2,000.
>With a victory, Baylor accomplishes the first goal of becoming bowl eligible. The Bears will have done that for the 11th time in the last 13 seasons.
>Oklahoma’s rush defense is last in the Big 12 at 189.8 yards per game. Baylor’s rushing attack averages 201 yards per game. It’s going to be a battle of whose front can impose the agenda throughout the contest.
>For as much as these teams can move the ball offensively, the Bears and Sooners are eighth and ninth in red zone offense. The Sooners have 25 of their 29 possessions (86.2 percent). The Bears are 30-36 (83.3).
Notable I
Baylor has scored 10 non-offensive touchdowns in 31 games under Aranda – three kickoff returns (Trestan Ebner x 3), five interception returns (Jalen Pitre x 2, A.J. McCarty, Al Walcott, JT Woods), one punt return (Gavin Holmes) and one fumble return (Woods).
Notable II
There is 101-yard difference in total defense. Baylor allows 337 yards per game. Oklahoma yields 438.
Keys to the Game
>Contain Dillon Gabriel – While missing 1.5 games with a concussion, the Oklahoma signal caller is third in the Big 12 in total yards per game at 278. He’s a danger with his legs not only for taking off and running with it but also the ability to keep plays alive. Baylor may consider putting a spy on him.
>Dance with who brung ya – Baylor’s rushing attack has been very strong the last three games against West Virginia, Kansas and Texas Tech. With Oklahoma’s rushing defense still struggling, Baylor must do everything to exploit that.
>Going for 2nds – There’s always one quarter that is lopsided one way or another. For the Bears, that the second period where they have outscored opponents, 93-43. In the last three games, they’ve won that quarter, 49-13. Momentum at the half is a big thing.
>Challenge OU – Even though Baylor has won only once in Norman, OK (2014), the Bears have played that game up there very well. Look for the Bears to be aggressive probably more in this game than they ever have been.
Prediction
Since the reverse psychology ploy worked so well last week for Lubbock, I thought about picking Oklahoma in this one simply because the Sooners have started to figure out some things and they are playing at home. In my preseason prediction, I penciled this game as the only loss.
That prediction is in the furnace, I’m going to put stock in the idea that Baylor has solved the riddle and will play at a higher level. This Sooner offense is more balanced with Gabriel, running back Eric Gray (796 yards) and receiver Marvin Mims (558 yards). They will move it and score.
However, the Sooners defense is the issue. It shut down a very anemic Iowa State team. Baylor will create enough success with the running game and lives to see another week in the race for the Big 12 title game.
Baylor 34, Oklahoma 29
Publisher
Baylor (5-3, 3-2) at Oklahoma (5-3, 2-3)
Site: Owen Field/Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Time/Day: 2:00 p.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: ESPN+/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: Oklahoma -3.5
Series: Oklahoma leads, 28-4
The November Big 12 championship game appearance tournament is here. For those participants who already have two league losses, it is a single-elimination format.
Baylor is among the three teams involved in the highwire category. The Bears are joined by Texas and Oklahoma State. One loss and the season transforms from the chase to playing for the best bowl possible.
With the impressive 45-17 victory at Texas Tech last Saturday allowing for November to be a high-stakes month, Saturday’s trip to Norman, OK takes it to the next level.
Until they’re on the wrong side of one of these games, the Bears are in a win-or-else mode.
“For us to go out and play the way we did, I’m way proud of the team,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “There are so many examples of here’s something in practice, here’s a drill, here it is showing up in a team period, and here it is showing up in a game. We continue to build with that thought in mind, I think just really keeps us focused on a process and gets us better and better, which we’re going to need to be for this next one.”
What’s equally important is for this team is to keep stringing these types of performances together. Texas Tech was reminiscent of the 2021 season. This team must validate that last week wasn’t a one-off.
Injury wise, the Bears lost tight end Drake Dabney (broken leg) for the rest of the season. There is some hope running back Taye McWilliams can return in some kind of role since Sept. 10 against BYU. Running back Sqwirl Williams (concussion) and wide receiver Monaray Baldwin (hamstring) didn’t play last week. Their status for Saturday is questionable.
Here are some key elements to look for
>Both running back Richard Reese and quarterback Blake Shapen are nearing season milestones. At 791 yards, Reese needs 209 to reach 1,000. With 1,819, Shapen needs 181 to eclipse 2,000.
>With a victory, Baylor accomplishes the first goal of becoming bowl eligible. The Bears will have done that for the 11th time in the last 13 seasons.
>Oklahoma’s rush defense is last in the Big 12 at 189.8 yards per game. Baylor’s rushing attack averages 201 yards per game. It’s going to be a battle of whose front can impose the agenda throughout the contest.
>For as much as these teams can move the ball offensively, the Bears and Sooners are eighth and ninth in red zone offense. The Sooners have 25 of their 29 possessions (86.2 percent). The Bears are 30-36 (83.3).
Notable I
Baylor has scored 10 non-offensive touchdowns in 31 games under Aranda – three kickoff returns (Trestan Ebner x 3), five interception returns (Jalen Pitre x 2, A.J. McCarty, Al Walcott, JT Woods), one punt return (Gavin Holmes) and one fumble return (Woods).
Notable II
There is 101-yard difference in total defense. Baylor allows 337 yards per game. Oklahoma yields 438.
Keys to the Game
>Contain Dillon Gabriel – While missing 1.5 games with a concussion, the Oklahoma signal caller is third in the Big 12 in total yards per game at 278. He’s a danger with his legs not only for taking off and running with it but also the ability to keep plays alive. Baylor may consider putting a spy on him.
>Dance with who brung ya – Baylor’s rushing attack has been very strong the last three games against West Virginia, Kansas and Texas Tech. With Oklahoma’s rushing defense still struggling, Baylor must do everything to exploit that.
>Going for 2nds – There’s always one quarter that is lopsided one way or another. For the Bears, that the second period where they have outscored opponents, 93-43. In the last three games, they’ve won that quarter, 49-13. Momentum at the half is a big thing.
>Challenge OU – Even though Baylor has won only once in Norman, OK (2014), the Bears have played that game up there very well. Look for the Bears to be aggressive probably more in this game than they ever have been.
Prediction
Since the reverse psychology ploy worked so well last week for Lubbock, I thought about picking Oklahoma in this one simply because the Sooners have started to figure out some things and they are playing at home. In my preseason prediction, I penciled this game as the only loss.
That prediction is in the furnace, I’m going to put stock in the idea that Baylor has solved the riddle and will play at a higher level. This Sooner offense is more balanced with Gabriel, running back Eric Gray (796 yards) and receiver Marvin Mims (558 yards). They will move it and score.
However, the Sooners defense is the issue. It shut down a very anemic Iowa State team. Baylor will create enough success with the running game and lives to see another week in the race for the Big 12 title game.
Baylor 34, Oklahoma 29
