By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
No. 4 TCU (10-0, 7-0) at Baylor (6-4, 4-3)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 11:00 a.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: FOX/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: TCU -2.5
Series: TCU leads, 57-53-7
Baylor’s film session following last Saturday’s 31-3 setback to Kansas State probably wasn’t a must-attend event. Senior left tackle Connor Galvin even said it himself.
“Obviously, it wasn't fun to watch the film on Monday,’’ Galvin said. “But we addressed it and then I thought we practiced really well after watching the film. And then after that, we started prep for TCU.”
As disappointing as that game was, it also provides an opportunity. The long-standing rivalry game with TCU summons a lot of emotions. For starters, it’s just the rivalry itself. Then, it’s Senior Day as the program thanks 25 loyal sons who went through the journey and won a Big 12 championship in 2021. They don’t want to leave McLane with a loss.
Finally, there’s possibly a bit of a “let’s wreck their season” mentality. Of course, Baylor was on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff last year when TCU tripped it up, 30-28, in Fort Worth.
Now, it’s the reverse. TCU is No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings. While Baylor can’t stop the Horned Frogs from playing in the Big 12 championship game – TCU clinched a berth with last week’s win over Texas – the Bears can derail their playoff hopes. A loss and the Horned Frogs are likely knocked out of the running.
There is still a bit of hope for the Bears to meet the Horned Frogs on Dec. 3 at AT&T Stadium. But so many things must happen for it to be a reality.
What this team just has to focus on is playing better. This Baylor team knows that it hasn’t played to preseason expectations. There have been games where the 2021 version emerged. It just hasn’t come together consistently.
“I would look at it more as, what a great opportunity we have with this particular game and the environment that’s going to be around on Saturday and the platform that we have and this last week was not us,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “We can be us. There’s always something about a team’s rise, but you learn more about a team with their response. So, I think that’s an opportunity for us that we have to take advantage of.”
Baylor’s health really isn’t an issue. Only running back Taye McWilliams (concussion) is likely unavailable. He could be redshirted if he doesn’t play.
Here are some key elements to look for
>TCU’s explosiveness on offense is something that every opponent has had a hard time with this fall. Quarter Max Duggan has been on target and knows how to get the ball into his receiver’s hands. That offense likes to use jet sweeps on the edge. Two have gone for scores. Plus, great playmakers like receiver Quentin Johnston and running back Kendre Miller can take a play that may go for nominal yards the distance.
>Baylor’s running game never got into any rhythm last week because the Bears didn’t control the clock (Kansas State held it 37-23). BU trailed the entire way. From the opening possession, the Bears are going to have to try and establish it. What will be interesting to watch is if Richard Reese or Sqwirl Williams will be the featured back.
>Much has been made about Baylor on fourth down this year (21-33, 63.6%). The Bears might be pressed into doing that as the Horned Frogs are allowing opponents to convert third down at 35 percent, third-best in the Big 12.
>If both teams get the running games going, it could be a short game. These two have scored the most rushing touchdowns in the conference. Baylor has 31. TCU has 26.
Notable
The list of the 25 seniors: Dillon Doyle, TJ Franklin, Jacob Gall, Connor Galvin, Byron Hanspard Jr., Gavin Holmes, Siaki Ika, Bryson Jackson, Mose Jeffery, Khalil Keith, Collin Losack, John Mayers, Cole Maxwell, Tripp Mitchell, Grant Miller, Chidi Ogbonnaya, Jaxon Player, Issac Power, Noah Rauschenber, Corbin Robertson, Ben Sims, Griffin Speaks, Brayden Utley, Craig Williams and Will Williams.
Keys to the Game
Respond – The disappointing thing about the Kansas State game was that when the Wildcats took it 97 yards and went up 7-0, the Bears didn’t have an answer. Football is a game of attitude and emotion. If this happens, Baylor needs to dig deep and punch back.
Shapen Reversal – When your QB is turning the ball over, that’s a problem. Blake Shapen’s 10 turnovers in the last six games have hurt. The level of performance against a 10-0 team has to be at an unprecedented level for Baylor to pull off the upset.
Field Position Contest – Unless the Bears have to chase the game from a distance, going for 4th-and-2 at your 31 midway through the second quarter or early in the 3rd is not a good idea especially against a team that’s explosive on offense. Baylor must make TCU drive the field.
Two defenses – Baylor’s running game needs to consume the clock and keep TCU’s offense off the field. Sustained scoring drives that use five or more minutes contribute to this winning formula. Of course, the defense itself has to take away plays on the perimeter and prevent the explosiveness.
Prediction
As I said in What was he Thinking, we’re going to find out early in this game if the Bears are ready to play or not. The emotions of Senior Day will be realized at the time of the introductions. But they must end moments before kickoff. Nothing wrong by being fueled by the desire to play well in the last one for the elder statesmen. That’s part of it. But if Baylor is going to ruin TCU’s playoff hopes, Shapen cannot turn it over and play clean, the Bears must win the turnover battle and just make some stops. I do believe they will play better. I think they will take this into the fourth quarter and make the Horned Frogs fight for it. In short, this is going to have to be a 180 of how they played through the first 10 games, especially last week. Unfortunately, I’m not convinced they can do it. Hope I’m wrong.
TCU 33, Baylor 24
Publisher
No. 4 TCU (10-0, 7-0) at Baylor (6-4, 4-3)
Site: McLane Stadium, Waco
Time/Day: 11:00 a.m. Saturday
TV/Radio: FOX/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: TCU -2.5
Series: TCU leads, 57-53-7
Baylor’s film session following last Saturday’s 31-3 setback to Kansas State probably wasn’t a must-attend event. Senior left tackle Connor Galvin even said it himself.
“Obviously, it wasn't fun to watch the film on Monday,’’ Galvin said. “But we addressed it and then I thought we practiced really well after watching the film. And then after that, we started prep for TCU.”
As disappointing as that game was, it also provides an opportunity. The long-standing rivalry game with TCU summons a lot of emotions. For starters, it’s just the rivalry itself. Then, it’s Senior Day as the program thanks 25 loyal sons who went through the journey and won a Big 12 championship in 2021. They don’t want to leave McLane with a loss.
Finally, there’s possibly a bit of a “let’s wreck their season” mentality. Of course, Baylor was on the doorstep of the College Football Playoff last year when TCU tripped it up, 30-28, in Fort Worth.
Now, it’s the reverse. TCU is No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings. While Baylor can’t stop the Horned Frogs from playing in the Big 12 championship game – TCU clinched a berth with last week’s win over Texas – the Bears can derail their playoff hopes. A loss and the Horned Frogs are likely knocked out of the running.
There is still a bit of hope for the Bears to meet the Horned Frogs on Dec. 3 at AT&T Stadium. But so many things must happen for it to be a reality.
What this team just has to focus on is playing better. This Baylor team knows that it hasn’t played to preseason expectations. There have been games where the 2021 version emerged. It just hasn’t come together consistently.
“I would look at it more as, what a great opportunity we have with this particular game and the environment that’s going to be around on Saturday and the platform that we have and this last week was not us,’’ Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said. “We can be us. There’s always something about a team’s rise, but you learn more about a team with their response. So, I think that’s an opportunity for us that we have to take advantage of.”
Baylor’s health really isn’t an issue. Only running back Taye McWilliams (concussion) is likely unavailable. He could be redshirted if he doesn’t play.
Here are some key elements to look for
>TCU’s explosiveness on offense is something that every opponent has had a hard time with this fall. Quarter Max Duggan has been on target and knows how to get the ball into his receiver’s hands. That offense likes to use jet sweeps on the edge. Two have gone for scores. Plus, great playmakers like receiver Quentin Johnston and running back Kendre Miller can take a play that may go for nominal yards the distance.
>Baylor’s running game never got into any rhythm last week because the Bears didn’t control the clock (Kansas State held it 37-23). BU trailed the entire way. From the opening possession, the Bears are going to have to try and establish it. What will be interesting to watch is if Richard Reese or Sqwirl Williams will be the featured back.
>Much has been made about Baylor on fourth down this year (21-33, 63.6%). The Bears might be pressed into doing that as the Horned Frogs are allowing opponents to convert third down at 35 percent, third-best in the Big 12.
>If both teams get the running games going, it could be a short game. These two have scored the most rushing touchdowns in the conference. Baylor has 31. TCU has 26.
Notable
The list of the 25 seniors: Dillon Doyle, TJ Franklin, Jacob Gall, Connor Galvin, Byron Hanspard Jr., Gavin Holmes, Siaki Ika, Bryson Jackson, Mose Jeffery, Khalil Keith, Collin Losack, John Mayers, Cole Maxwell, Tripp Mitchell, Grant Miller, Chidi Ogbonnaya, Jaxon Player, Issac Power, Noah Rauschenber, Corbin Robertson, Ben Sims, Griffin Speaks, Brayden Utley, Craig Williams and Will Williams.
Keys to the Game
Respond – The disappointing thing about the Kansas State game was that when the Wildcats took it 97 yards and went up 7-0, the Bears didn’t have an answer. Football is a game of attitude and emotion. If this happens, Baylor needs to dig deep and punch back.
Shapen Reversal – When your QB is turning the ball over, that’s a problem. Blake Shapen’s 10 turnovers in the last six games have hurt. The level of performance against a 10-0 team has to be at an unprecedented level for Baylor to pull off the upset.
Field Position Contest – Unless the Bears have to chase the game from a distance, going for 4th-and-2 at your 31 midway through the second quarter or early in the 3rd is not a good idea especially against a team that’s explosive on offense. Baylor must make TCU drive the field.
Two defenses – Baylor’s running game needs to consume the clock and keep TCU’s offense off the field. Sustained scoring drives that use five or more minutes contribute to this winning formula. Of course, the defense itself has to take away plays on the perimeter and prevent the explosiveness.
Prediction
As I said in What was he Thinking, we’re going to find out early in this game if the Bears are ready to play or not. The emotions of Senior Day will be realized at the time of the introductions. But they must end moments before kickoff. Nothing wrong by being fueled by the desire to play well in the last one for the elder statesmen. That’s part of it. But if Baylor is going to ruin TCU’s playoff hopes, Shapen cannot turn it over and play clean, the Bears must win the turnover battle and just make some stops. I do believe they will play better. I think they will take this into the fourth quarter and make the Horned Frogs fight for it. In short, this is going to have to be a 180 of how they played through the first 10 games, especially last week. Unfortunately, I’m not convinced they can do it. Hope I’m wrong.
TCU 33, Baylor 24
