By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
Baylor’s pursuit of a Big 12 championship game appearance is not lost. But it also took a big hit in a 36-25 loss at home to No. 9 Oklahoma State Saturday at McLane Stadium.
In front of a sold-out crowd of 47,979 – the 7th largest in stadium history – Baylor trailed for the final 50+ minutes. The Bears cut it to a one-score game on a couple of occasions at 23-17 and 33-25. Baylor also had the ball with a chance to tie but didn’t drive close enough to where it really had that chance.
Now, 3-2 and 1-1 the Bears head to the bye with a lot to review. They return to action Thursday, Oct. 13 at West Virginia.
SicEmSports provides reflections, observations and three Golden Bears.
Upon reflection
Let’s put these first five games in perspective about what I think this Baylor team is.
The good
>They have a solid linebacker group led by Dillon Doyle, Matt Jones and Bryson Jackson.
>I still believe that the defensive line can be better than what it has shown.
>There isn’t too much to complain about with the safety play.
>Issac Power is the best punter in America that no one knows about. I’ll get to him in bit.
The concerns
>I don’t think it’s going to get any better for the offensive line. This is who this unit is. In reality, it’s nothing close to what it was last year. I have a theory that I will share.
>My buying segment on Gavin Holmes evaporated on his first change when he had a drop at the OSU 5-yard line on Baylor’s opening possession. A forgettable day. But that also signals that there is no alpha receiver and it’s going to take something extraordinary in the final seven games for one to emerge.
>Blake Shapen has been fine so far. The one element to his game that needs to adjust is the ball has to come out faster. I think he holds it too long. Now, maybe that goes back to his receivers not being physical to create separation or running routes. However, it has to be 1,2,3 out.
Nothing special
Dave Aranda talked about in the postgame presser about the special teams where all the hidden yardage lies. He’s right. Special teams were the difference in this game. It led to 16 of Oklahoma State’s 36 points.
First of all, you have the Cowboys downing a 37-yard punt at the Baylor 2-yard line that eventually leads to the safety.
That’s followed by the Jaden Nixon’s 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half.
Finally, Brennan Presley’s kickoff return to midfield shifted the momentum. Baylor had scored twice to narrow the gap to 23-17 including a touchdown that came off the only forced turnover. Two plays later, the Cowboys scored to extend back to 30-17. Essentially, nothing had changed when Oklahoma State led 16-3 at halftime.
Add the downed punt and two returns and that’s 185 yards.
The stunning thing is Baylor’s special teams had been very solid between last season and through the first four games of this season.
The Decisions
There were questionable ones made in this game. I’ll look at two.
>The call by OC Jeff Grimes on the toss play to Richard Reese in the end zone was really bad. The ball is at the 2-yard line. You’re asking three offensive linemen and two tight ends and maybe a wide receiver to block an already compressed field.
Richard Reese starts this play lining up 6-7 yards deep in the end zone (traditional for any RB). This initial running play has to be north-south. The objective is to get some breathing room.
If you want to run the toss play, use that at something like your 7-yard line where the running back is standing on the one or goal line. The play is designed for Reese to run wide in the end zone before he can find his hole. This play never had a chance.
>Aranda has talked about the analytics giving him the reason to go for it if fourth down is five yards or less. I get it. In today’s college football, you can rip off five-yard plays like its nothing. But you can’t let it impact you as greatly as I would interpret from Aranda’s comments that it does.
Baylor’s chasing this game. We all understand that. The Bears have got to score. But football is and always will be a game of field position.
Baylor’s trailing 30-17 in the third quarter with 7:14 to play when it gets the ball at its 25. A lot of football left to be played.
The Bears are facing a 4th-and-2 at their 33. Aranda elects to go for it. Cowboys bring the pressure. Shapen has to get rid of it. Incomplete.
OSU takes over at the Baylor 33 and eventually settles for a field goal to extend it 33-17.
Punting the ball is not a bad thing. Power is a guy who routinely flips the field. Minus anything bizarre, Oklahoma State is probably starting around its 25-30 and Baylor had done a better job against Sanders in the second half.
While the circumstances didn’t change from Baylor having to chase a two-score game, it became a max two-score game (16 points). The margin of error shrunk.
The compelling part of all-or-nothing decisions, you look really good or you really don’t.
Offensive Line Assessment
Here’s my theory. The good thing is Baylor’s offensive line has four returning starters. We just haven’t seen Khalil Keith yet because of his knee injury. Maybe he returns for West Virginia.
When you unveil something new like the RVO was last year, it made it tough to defend. Defensive linemen weren’t sure where line up Linebackers had to guess how to support and what gaps to fill.
In sports, there is a game of adjustments. Don’t think that all of Baylor’s 2022 opponents used the offseason to break down that blocking scheme where to counter it. Plus, the advantage they may feel like they have is that with all of these returners they can look at tendencies (Baylor’s coaches do that too).
The other thing this RVO could be missing is a big physical North-South back. Abram Smith was that. He was a one-step plant and go. That played a big role in 1,601. Baylor doesn’t have that. I like Richard Reese and think he can have a great career. He’s just getting started. Yet this roster is missing this. Maybe no Taye McWilliams hurts here. Qualan Jones is complimentary back.
But Baylor’s average yards per carry in the three P5 games are 3.6, 3.7 and 3.7. That’s a trend. That’s not good. We’ll see how they can flip the script at West Virginia.
Feeling for him
You do have to feel for Holmes who had a nightmare of a game. Several drops including the tip that led to an interception in the fourth quarter. He also made a couple of bad decisions on field and not field punts.
Everybody’s been there. He’ll get through it.
Golden Bears
The yearly tradition returns. No matter the outcome, we select the three who had the most impact on the Bears’ performance. The following are from Baylor’s 36-25 loss to Oklahoma State.
Monaray Baldwin, WR, Soph.: His speed is electric. The catch-and-run on the 70-yard touchdown pass from Blake Shapen was a thing of beauty. He just left people 10 yards behind when he kicked it up a notch. He’s this team’s big-play threat.
Notable – Receiving: 7-174 2TD
Dillon Doyle, LB, 5th: I thought he was really good. He made a couple of early 3rd down stops to force Oklahoma State punts. The defense was much better against Sanders in the second half.
Notable – 6 solo tackles, 4 assisted tackles
Christian Morgan, S, 5th: He’s hot. No question about it. Morgan has INTs in consecutive weeks and made a nice play on his snare of Sanders in the third quarter that led to a Baylor touchdown. He also punched out a fumble. Unfortunately, Baylor didn’t get it.
Notable – 3 solo tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 1 TFL, 1 FF, 1 INT
Publisher
Baylor’s pursuit of a Big 12 championship game appearance is not lost. But it also took a big hit in a 36-25 loss at home to No. 9 Oklahoma State Saturday at McLane Stadium.
In front of a sold-out crowd of 47,979 – the 7th largest in stadium history – Baylor trailed for the final 50+ minutes. The Bears cut it to a one-score game on a couple of occasions at 23-17 and 33-25. Baylor also had the ball with a chance to tie but didn’t drive close enough to where it really had that chance.
Now, 3-2 and 1-1 the Bears head to the bye with a lot to review. They return to action Thursday, Oct. 13 at West Virginia.
SicEmSports provides reflections, observations and three Golden Bears.
Upon reflection
Let’s put these first five games in perspective about what I think this Baylor team is.
The good
>They have a solid linebacker group led by Dillon Doyle, Matt Jones and Bryson Jackson.
>I still believe that the defensive line can be better than what it has shown.
>There isn’t too much to complain about with the safety play.
>Issac Power is the best punter in America that no one knows about. I’ll get to him in bit.
The concerns
>I don’t think it’s going to get any better for the offensive line. This is who this unit is. In reality, it’s nothing close to what it was last year. I have a theory that I will share.
>My buying segment on Gavin Holmes evaporated on his first change when he had a drop at the OSU 5-yard line on Baylor’s opening possession. A forgettable day. But that also signals that there is no alpha receiver and it’s going to take something extraordinary in the final seven games for one to emerge.
>Blake Shapen has been fine so far. The one element to his game that needs to adjust is the ball has to come out faster. I think he holds it too long. Now, maybe that goes back to his receivers not being physical to create separation or running routes. However, it has to be 1,2,3 out.
Nothing special
Dave Aranda talked about in the postgame presser about the special teams where all the hidden yardage lies. He’s right. Special teams were the difference in this game. It led to 16 of Oklahoma State’s 36 points.
First of all, you have the Cowboys downing a 37-yard punt at the Baylor 2-yard line that eventually leads to the safety.
That’s followed by the Jaden Nixon’s 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half.
Finally, Brennan Presley’s kickoff return to midfield shifted the momentum. Baylor had scored twice to narrow the gap to 23-17 including a touchdown that came off the only forced turnover. Two plays later, the Cowboys scored to extend back to 30-17. Essentially, nothing had changed when Oklahoma State led 16-3 at halftime.
Add the downed punt and two returns and that’s 185 yards.
The stunning thing is Baylor’s special teams had been very solid between last season and through the first four games of this season.
The Decisions
There were questionable ones made in this game. I’ll look at two.
>The call by OC Jeff Grimes on the toss play to Richard Reese in the end zone was really bad. The ball is at the 2-yard line. You’re asking three offensive linemen and two tight ends and maybe a wide receiver to block an already compressed field.
Richard Reese starts this play lining up 6-7 yards deep in the end zone (traditional for any RB). This initial running play has to be north-south. The objective is to get some breathing room.
If you want to run the toss play, use that at something like your 7-yard line where the running back is standing on the one or goal line. The play is designed for Reese to run wide in the end zone before he can find his hole. This play never had a chance.
>Aranda has talked about the analytics giving him the reason to go for it if fourth down is five yards or less. I get it. In today’s college football, you can rip off five-yard plays like its nothing. But you can’t let it impact you as greatly as I would interpret from Aranda’s comments that it does.
Baylor’s chasing this game. We all understand that. The Bears have got to score. But football is and always will be a game of field position.
Baylor’s trailing 30-17 in the third quarter with 7:14 to play when it gets the ball at its 25. A lot of football left to be played.
The Bears are facing a 4th-and-2 at their 33. Aranda elects to go for it. Cowboys bring the pressure. Shapen has to get rid of it. Incomplete.
OSU takes over at the Baylor 33 and eventually settles for a field goal to extend it 33-17.
Punting the ball is not a bad thing. Power is a guy who routinely flips the field. Minus anything bizarre, Oklahoma State is probably starting around its 25-30 and Baylor had done a better job against Sanders in the second half.
While the circumstances didn’t change from Baylor having to chase a two-score game, it became a max two-score game (16 points). The margin of error shrunk.
The compelling part of all-or-nothing decisions, you look really good or you really don’t.
Offensive Line Assessment
Here’s my theory. The good thing is Baylor’s offensive line has four returning starters. We just haven’t seen Khalil Keith yet because of his knee injury. Maybe he returns for West Virginia.
When you unveil something new like the RVO was last year, it made it tough to defend. Defensive linemen weren’t sure where line up Linebackers had to guess how to support and what gaps to fill.
In sports, there is a game of adjustments. Don’t think that all of Baylor’s 2022 opponents used the offseason to break down that blocking scheme where to counter it. Plus, the advantage they may feel like they have is that with all of these returners they can look at tendencies (Baylor’s coaches do that too).
The other thing this RVO could be missing is a big physical North-South back. Abram Smith was that. He was a one-step plant and go. That played a big role in 1,601. Baylor doesn’t have that. I like Richard Reese and think he can have a great career. He’s just getting started. Yet this roster is missing this. Maybe no Taye McWilliams hurts here. Qualan Jones is complimentary back.
But Baylor’s average yards per carry in the three P5 games are 3.6, 3.7 and 3.7. That’s a trend. That’s not good. We’ll see how they can flip the script at West Virginia.
Feeling for him
You do have to feel for Holmes who had a nightmare of a game. Several drops including the tip that led to an interception in the fourth quarter. He also made a couple of bad decisions on field and not field punts.
Everybody’s been there. He’ll get through it.
Golden Bears
The yearly tradition returns. No matter the outcome, we select the three who had the most impact on the Bears’ performance. The following are from Baylor’s 36-25 loss to Oklahoma State.
Monaray Baldwin, WR, Soph.: His speed is electric. The catch-and-run on the 70-yard touchdown pass from Blake Shapen was a thing of beauty. He just left people 10 yards behind when he kicked it up a notch. He’s this team’s big-play threat.
Notable – Receiving: 7-174 2TD
Dillon Doyle, LB, 5th: I thought he was really good. He made a couple of early 3rd down stops to force Oklahoma State punts. The defense was much better against Sanders in the second half.
Notable – 6 solo tackles, 4 assisted tackles
Christian Morgan, S, 5th: He’s hot. No question about it. Morgan has INTs in consecutive weeks and made a nice play on his snare of Sanders in the third quarter that led to a Baylor touchdown. He also punched out a fumble. Unfortunately, Baylor didn’t get it.
Notable – 3 solo tackles, 1 assisted tackle, 1 TFL, 1 FF, 1 INT
