One final number crunch for the 2014 class
As you saw in my story breaking down the numbers of the 2014 signing class, Rivals.com had the least favorable grade for Baylor's class of all the major scouting services. But there could be one way to best determine the true grade of a class: How many other offers did Baylor's signees have from other programs in automatic-qualifying BCS conferences?
That might best represent the true value of a recruit; how badly did other college coaches want him, too?
I crunched the numbers for four of Baylor's recruiting classes: The 2014 and 2013 classes, since they're the most recent; the 2008 class, since it was the first for Art Briles at Baylor; and the 2007 class, which was the final class before Briles came to Baylor.
Obviously, the numbers favor the most recent two classes. But the huge contrast in the difference in offers from other programs further reveals just how much better Baylor is recruiting now as compared to pre-Briles. I came up with four categories to quantify the data:
> The total number of BCS offers other than from Baylor;
> The average number of other BCS offers per recruit;
> The median number (i.e. the middle value of the number of offers) for the class;
> The total number of recruits without any other BCS offers.
Now, keep in mind we can only go off the offers listed by Rivals.com. Davion Hall, for example, only has nine published offers from auto-BCS conferences. I imagine he had a ton more than that, but we can only use the available date. The results:
2014 class (23 signees): 88 total BCS offers; 3.8 offers per recruit; median number of 3; 2 recruits without other BCS offers
2013 class (22 signees): 106 total BCS offers; 4.8 offers per recruit; median number of 3; 7 recruits without other BCS offers
2008 class (22 signees): 60 total BCS offers; 2.7 offers per recruit; median number of 2; 3 recruits without other BCS offers
2007 class (26 signees): 45 total BCS offers; 1.7 offers per recruit; median number of 1; 12 recruits without other BCS offers
When it comes to total BCS offers, the 2013 class did quite a bit better than the 2014 class (18 more offers with one less signee). However, because there are seven signees that didn't have a single other BCS offer, it shows that the BCS offers were actually distributed to fewer players than the average indicates. Because of this, the average recruit of the 2014 class was actually recruited by more programs than the average recruit of the 2013 class.
The 2007 class was abysmal. Twelve players without another BCS offer other than from Baylor is the perfect way to lose your job. That just won't cut it in any major conference. The uptick from the arrival of Briles is pretty apparent, too. His first class only had three players without other BCS offers. He had four fewer signees than the year before, but his class had 15 more BCS offers than the 2007 class. Despite that improvement, the 2008 class is still a far cry from what Briles is producing now.
Well, hopefully I didn't lose your interest with all of these numbers being thrown around. My final conclusion: While the 2013 class did have some advantages on the 2014 class, I think 1) Some 2014 Baylor signees had more offers than what Rivals.com lists, so the classes are probably more equal than represented, and 2) As I mentioned, since only two signees didn't have other BCS offers, it shows Baylor had to win more battles for 2014 signees than it did for any other year.
-Jake Shaw
Durham waits patiently
Landis Durham has the size that any defensive coordinator wants as a linebacker. Durham stands 6-3, and weighs 228 pounds. And there's probably a little more that can fit inside that frame.
While the 2015 prospect plays on the edge for the Plano East defense, Baylor sees him as an inside linebacker, Durham said.
A recent junior day attendee, Durham took a good look at the Bears defense and how it likes to play its linebackers in the 4-2-5. He also has had some follow ups with defensive coordinator Phil Bennett and linebackers coach Jim Gush.
While there is a lot to like, the Bears have yet to offer. Durham is fine with that. But he is a highly rated recruit (3 stars, 5.7) with offers from Washington and Boston College along with Boise State and SMU.
"They're evaluating me and just told me to be patient,'' Durham said. "If I have the kind of spring that I think I could, maybe I'll get offered.''
Plano East deploys a 3-4, and Durham has split time between outside linebacker and defensive end. He is beginning preparations to be a 3-year starter. He considered his unmeasured wingspan one of his strengths. With his 4.52 speed, that's why Plano East coaches know he can get to the perimeter.
"I feel like defensive end comes naturally for me,'' he said. "I've been on the edge all my life.''
Durham has seen Baylor in its dark days when his cousin Davon Vinson played in the early 2000s. But Durham's first visit to Waco two weeks demonstrated how much things have changed.
"Everything was great,'' he said. "You could everything is coming together for them.''
-Kevin Lonnquist
The Fox on the hunt
Like Durham, Baylor is trying to evaluate who could be a solid inside linebacker candidate. Houston Clear Lake's Nathan Fox (6-3, 230) is built similarly to Durham.
And like Durham Fox also attended the Jan. 26 junior day. He briefly met with Bennett and secondary coach Carlton Buckels. And like Durham, Fox will also have to wait to see if an offer is going to come.
"It was a great visit to Baylor, and I thought I was going to get an offer after I met with them,'' Fox said. "They're one of my top schools and the thing you can tell is how much attitude there is in the strength and conditioning program.''
Fox has an offer from Mississippi State and has drawn interest from Texas Tech, Oregon State, Oklahoma State and TCU
Fox is teammates with Baylor 2014 offensive lineman Blake Blackmar. You can imagine what kind of recruiting was going on there.
"Blake's one of my best friends,'' Fox said. "He and I have great chemistry. It would be great to play in college with one of my friends.''
Clear Lake's defense operates the 3-4. Fox plays inside with the linebacker. With a downhill presence, there will be many times he can take on two three blockers in the same play.
"I think I'm pretty good when we use our cross blitzes because they're a reactive blitz,'' he said. "When our defensive tackle moves one way, I come across. And I'm fast enough so that the offensive lineman can't react.''
Clear Lake's offseason is in the middle of its boot camp. But Fox will work out extra on his own as well. But he's taking it a little easy this year. In 2013 he pulled his left hamstring, which impacted his performance on the field.
Still, he wants to work to reduce his 40 time from 4.6 to 4.5.
-Kevin Lonnquist
Rising in Rowlett
Rowlett defensive end Charles Omenihu (6-5, 217) has seen his recruiting escalate since he attended Baylor's junior day on Jan. 26.
Texas invited him to its junior day on Feb. 22. Oklahoma State followed with an invitation to its junior day on Feb. 23.
Baylor may still have an early edge. The coaching staff has been on him since Omenihu was a sophomore. However, his visit to Waco was his first.
"It was everything I thought it would be,'' Omenihu said. "You can see that coach [Art] Briles wants to take this program to the top like Alabama. I don't see any flaws with the program. Getting an offer would mean the world.''
However, scholarships will be tight. Baylor should have about 18 slots to fill for the 2015 class. Really, it's down to 14 with four commitments.
Omeinhu is thin a la Greg Roberts from Nacogdoches. But when he watched Baylor play, he noticed how the defensive line slants and can create pressure. With his size, there's a lot to work with. But he wants to be better with his hands at the point of attack.
"I really liked talking to assistante [Chris] Achuff,'' Omenihu said. "He just told me to keep playing more physical and to strike with my hands more. They're going to see that when they come in the spring.''
He's also moving early on his academic side. Omenihu is scheduled to take the SAT on May 3.
-Kevin Lonnquist
Big 12 Power Ratings - Basketball
Baylor's out of the Big 12 race, but that doesn't stop SicEmSports from ranking the Big 12 teams heading into the weekend.
1. Kansas (17-5/8-1) - The Jayhawks are vulnerable, but they're still easily the team to beat in the Big 12.
2. Oklahoma (17-6/6-4) - OU will look for a rebound against Baylor after dropping two straight road games.
3. Kansas State (15-7/5-4) - K-State has had a week off to prepare for hosting UT, the hottest team in the conference.
4. Oklahoma State (16-6/4-5) - If not for your Bears, this would be the most disappointing team in the league.
5. Texas (18-4/7-2) - Somehow the Longhorns have worked their way to a half-game back of Kansas.
6. Iowa State (17-4/5-4) - The ship seems to have righted, and things should only get better with TCU coming to town tomorrow.
7. West Virginia (14-9/6-4) - Who saw this coming after a lackluster non-conference schedule?
8. Texas Tech (11-11/3-6) - This weekend's opponent, OSU, suddenly looks beatable.
9. Baylor (14-8/2-7) - The magic number is three: Any more losses than that, and kiss the NCAAs goodbye.
10. TCU (9-12/0-9) - With football not pulling its weight, TCU sure hasn't brought much to the conference so far.
-Jake Shaw
Emptying the Notebook
>If you didn't hear, Baylor is going to be sending six players to the NFL Combine Feb. 19-25 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
They are: WR Tevin Reese, OL Cyril Richardson, RB Lache Seastrunk, S Ahmad Dixon, TE Jordan Navjar and DB Demetri Goodson. That is the most of any Big 12 team.
>Stephenville 2015 QB Jarret Stidham released/tweeted his Top 10 Thursday night. In alphabetical order, he had Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas Tech.
>5,279 - That's the combined weight for the 23 signees in Baylor 2014 class.
>While they were picked sixth in the Big 12, Baseball America still projects the Baylor baseball team to make the NCAA tournament in June. It also listed left-hander Brad Kuntz and right-hander Austin Stone to be among the top 20 prospects to be taken in the June free agent draft. Baylor opens the season next Friday (Feb. 14) with a 3-game series at Arizona State.
-SicEmSports
As you saw in my story breaking down the numbers of the 2014 signing class, Rivals.com had the least favorable grade for Baylor's class of all the major scouting services. But there could be one way to best determine the true grade of a class: How many other offers did Baylor's signees have from other programs in automatic-qualifying BCS conferences?
That might best represent the true value of a recruit; how badly did other college coaches want him, too?
I crunched the numbers for four of Baylor's recruiting classes: The 2014 and 2013 classes, since they're the most recent; the 2008 class, since it was the first for Art Briles at Baylor; and the 2007 class, which was the final class before Briles came to Baylor.
Obviously, the numbers favor the most recent two classes. But the huge contrast in the difference in offers from other programs further reveals just how much better Baylor is recruiting now as compared to pre-Briles. I came up with four categories to quantify the data:
> The total number of BCS offers other than from Baylor;
> The average number of other BCS offers per recruit;
> The median number (i.e. the middle value of the number of offers) for the class;
> The total number of recruits without any other BCS offers.
Now, keep in mind we can only go off the offers listed by Rivals.com. Davion Hall, for example, only has nine published offers from auto-BCS conferences. I imagine he had a ton more than that, but we can only use the available date. The results:
2014 class (23 signees): 88 total BCS offers; 3.8 offers per recruit; median number of 3; 2 recruits without other BCS offers
2013 class (22 signees): 106 total BCS offers; 4.8 offers per recruit; median number of 3; 7 recruits without other BCS offers
2008 class (22 signees): 60 total BCS offers; 2.7 offers per recruit; median number of 2; 3 recruits without other BCS offers
2007 class (26 signees): 45 total BCS offers; 1.7 offers per recruit; median number of 1; 12 recruits without other BCS offers
When it comes to total BCS offers, the 2013 class did quite a bit better than the 2014 class (18 more offers with one less signee). However, because there are seven signees that didn't have a single other BCS offer, it shows that the BCS offers were actually distributed to fewer players than the average indicates. Because of this, the average recruit of the 2014 class was actually recruited by more programs than the average recruit of the 2013 class.
The 2007 class was abysmal. Twelve players without another BCS offer other than from Baylor is the perfect way to lose your job. That just won't cut it in any major conference. The uptick from the arrival of Briles is pretty apparent, too. His first class only had three players without other BCS offers. He had four fewer signees than the year before, but his class had 15 more BCS offers than the 2007 class. Despite that improvement, the 2008 class is still a far cry from what Briles is producing now.
Well, hopefully I didn't lose your interest with all of these numbers being thrown around. My final conclusion: While the 2013 class did have some advantages on the 2014 class, I think 1) Some 2014 Baylor signees had more offers than what Rivals.com lists, so the classes are probably more equal than represented, and 2) As I mentioned, since only two signees didn't have other BCS offers, it shows Baylor had to win more battles for 2014 signees than it did for any other year.
-Jake Shaw
Durham waits patiently
Landis Durham has the size that any defensive coordinator wants as a linebacker. Durham stands 6-3, and weighs 228 pounds. And there's probably a little more that can fit inside that frame.
While the 2015 prospect plays on the edge for the Plano East defense, Baylor sees him as an inside linebacker, Durham said.
A recent junior day attendee, Durham took a good look at the Bears defense and how it likes to play its linebackers in the 4-2-5. He also has had some follow ups with defensive coordinator Phil Bennett and linebackers coach Jim Gush.
While there is a lot to like, the Bears have yet to offer. Durham is fine with that. But he is a highly rated recruit (3 stars, 5.7) with offers from Washington and Boston College along with Boise State and SMU.
"They're evaluating me and just told me to be patient,'' Durham said. "If I have the kind of spring that I think I could, maybe I'll get offered.''
Plano East deploys a 3-4, and Durham has split time between outside linebacker and defensive end. He is beginning preparations to be a 3-year starter. He considered his unmeasured wingspan one of his strengths. With his 4.52 speed, that's why Plano East coaches know he can get to the perimeter.
"I feel like defensive end comes naturally for me,'' he said. "I've been on the edge all my life.''
Durham has seen Baylor in its dark days when his cousin Davon Vinson played in the early 2000s. But Durham's first visit to Waco two weeks demonstrated how much things have changed.
"Everything was great,'' he said. "You could everything is coming together for them.''
-Kevin Lonnquist
The Fox on the hunt
Like Durham, Baylor is trying to evaluate who could be a solid inside linebacker candidate. Houston Clear Lake's Nathan Fox (6-3, 230) is built similarly to Durham.
And like Durham Fox also attended the Jan. 26 junior day. He briefly met with Bennett and secondary coach Carlton Buckels. And like Durham, Fox will also have to wait to see if an offer is going to come.
"It was a great visit to Baylor, and I thought I was going to get an offer after I met with them,'' Fox said. "They're one of my top schools and the thing you can tell is how much attitude there is in the strength and conditioning program.''
Fox has an offer from Mississippi State and has drawn interest from Texas Tech, Oregon State, Oklahoma State and TCU
Fox is teammates with Baylor 2014 offensive lineman Blake Blackmar. You can imagine what kind of recruiting was going on there.
"Blake's one of my best friends,'' Fox said. "He and I have great chemistry. It would be great to play in college with one of my friends.''
Clear Lake's defense operates the 3-4. Fox plays inside with the linebacker. With a downhill presence, there will be many times he can take on two three blockers in the same play.
"I think I'm pretty good when we use our cross blitzes because they're a reactive blitz,'' he said. "When our defensive tackle moves one way, I come across. And I'm fast enough so that the offensive lineman can't react.''
Clear Lake's offseason is in the middle of its boot camp. But Fox will work out extra on his own as well. But he's taking it a little easy this year. In 2013 he pulled his left hamstring, which impacted his performance on the field.
Still, he wants to work to reduce his 40 time from 4.6 to 4.5.
-Kevin Lonnquist
Rising in Rowlett
Rowlett defensive end Charles Omenihu (6-5, 217) has seen his recruiting escalate since he attended Baylor's junior day on Jan. 26.
Texas invited him to its junior day on Feb. 22. Oklahoma State followed with an invitation to its junior day on Feb. 23.
Baylor may still have an early edge. The coaching staff has been on him since Omenihu was a sophomore. However, his visit to Waco was his first.
"It was everything I thought it would be,'' Omenihu said. "You can see that coach [Art] Briles wants to take this program to the top like Alabama. I don't see any flaws with the program. Getting an offer would mean the world.''
However, scholarships will be tight. Baylor should have about 18 slots to fill for the 2015 class. Really, it's down to 14 with four commitments.
Omeinhu is thin a la Greg Roberts from Nacogdoches. But when he watched Baylor play, he noticed how the defensive line slants and can create pressure. With his size, there's a lot to work with. But he wants to be better with his hands at the point of attack.
"I really liked talking to assistante [Chris] Achuff,'' Omenihu said. "He just told me to keep playing more physical and to strike with my hands more. They're going to see that when they come in the spring.''
He's also moving early on his academic side. Omenihu is scheduled to take the SAT on May 3.
-Kevin Lonnquist
Big 12 Power Ratings - Basketball
Baylor's out of the Big 12 race, but that doesn't stop SicEmSports from ranking the Big 12 teams heading into the weekend.
1. Kansas (17-5/8-1) - The Jayhawks are vulnerable, but they're still easily the team to beat in the Big 12.
2. Oklahoma (17-6/6-4) - OU will look for a rebound against Baylor after dropping two straight road games.
3. Kansas State (15-7/5-4) - K-State has had a week off to prepare for hosting UT, the hottest team in the conference.
4. Oklahoma State (16-6/4-5) - If not for your Bears, this would be the most disappointing team in the league.
5. Texas (18-4/7-2) - Somehow the Longhorns have worked their way to a half-game back of Kansas.
6. Iowa State (17-4/5-4) - The ship seems to have righted, and things should only get better with TCU coming to town tomorrow.
7. West Virginia (14-9/6-4) - Who saw this coming after a lackluster non-conference schedule?
8. Texas Tech (11-11/3-6) - This weekend's opponent, OSU, suddenly looks beatable.
9. Baylor (14-8/2-7) - The magic number is three: Any more losses than that, and kiss the NCAAs goodbye.
10. TCU (9-12/0-9) - With football not pulling its weight, TCU sure hasn't brought much to the conference so far.
-Jake Shaw
Emptying the Notebook
>If you didn't hear, Baylor is going to be sending six players to the NFL Combine Feb. 19-25 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
They are: WR Tevin Reese, OL Cyril Richardson, RB Lache Seastrunk, S Ahmad Dixon, TE Jordan Navjar and DB Demetri Goodson. That is the most of any Big 12 team.
>Stephenville 2015 QB Jarret Stidham released/tweeted his Top 10 Thursday night. In alphabetical order, he had Alabama, Auburn, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Texas Tech.
>5,279 - That's the combined weight for the 23 signees in Baylor 2014 class.
>While they were picked sixth in the Big 12, Baseball America still projects the Baylor baseball team to make the NCAA tournament in June. It also listed left-hander Brad Kuntz and right-hander Austin Stone to be among the top 20 prospects to be taken in the June free agent draft. Baylor opens the season next Friday (Feb. 14) with a 3-game series at Arizona State.
-SicEmSports
