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Playing the BU QB percentages: Shapen vs. Robertson

k lonnquist

Well-Known Member
Mar 10, 2009
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By Kevin Lonnquist
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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda said following the April 22 Green & Gold game that he was ready to make a decision on his starting quarterback for the 2023 season.

Aranda was going to let both Blake Shapen and Sawyer Robertson know. If that has happened, it has not been made public yet.

The battle played out throughout the spring campaign. And while one of these two will take the first snap Sept. 2 against Texas State, that doesn’t mean the winner stands in the shotgun on the opening series for all 12 games.

We look at the case and the odds for each being named the starter:

Odds to win the job: Shapen 70 percent
The Why: Loyalty may play into this where Aranda and offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes are comfortable with Shapen and are convinced he can put the struggles of 2022 behind him.

There’s nothing wrong with Shapen’s arm. He has a big one. He can make all the throws. What ails him is his decision making and ability to protect the football. Plus, he must get it right mentally if he’s going to have a far different season. In short, confidence needs to be part of his makeup.

Shapen coupled with an under performing and unknown wide receiver corps from 2022 have to change the narrative.

But Shapen likely knows that his margin for error is not going to be very long. Sept. 9 against Utah could be pivotal to him keeping this job.


Odds to win the job: Robertson 30 percent
The Why: He’s the new guy from Mississippi State who worked under one of the best QB whisperers in the game in the late Mike Leach. Robertson left Starkville, MS. in part because of Leach’s passing as well as him reading the room that he was never going to unseat Will Rogers as the starting QB.

What may work against him at this point is that he doesn’t have command of the offense and needs more time to become comfortable. His arm is as big as Shapen’s if not bigger.

While Robertson doesn’t have much of passing history in his time in college, he could be the breath of fresh air that the program and the offense needs to feel better about itself.

The lack of reps in college may play to his advantage because he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know until he gets in there. He’s the new guy. Robertson will get the benefit of the doubt.

If he doesn’t win the starting job, Robertson should be ready. Odds are, he’s going to see significant playing time this fall.

The scenario: Barring injury, I believe this is headed to a situation where Shapen and Robertson go back and forth. As soon as one struggles, the other one is going to be the relief pitcher. That said, each of them controls their destiny. There’s more pressure on Shapen. There’s also pressure on Aranda because he has admitted that he and his staff did not handle the QB room very well in 202
 
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