Kevin's never been crazy about conference realignment talk, cause things go stupid too fast.
Recognizing the risk, I still think it's important to look at the landscape and see what's happening.
Yormark made what is looking like a master stroke in negotiating the B12 contract early. He also didn't overextend and try to get a contract matching what B1G/SEC got.
The B12 is now as stable as it's ever been. It may be faint praise, but there aren't any bigger, better deals out there for B12 members. Nobody's clawing on the door to get out. Schools have good exposure. Most importantly, the deal was signed before the full impact of the recession hit.
This brings us to the next thing. The PAC has some issues.
Everybody's rights are tied up, except the PAC, and we're in a recession, one that is hitting entertainment hard. Disney is cutting 5.5 billion and laying off 5,000. SVB Bank shut down, damaging the entertainment industry. FOX and CBS have their sports contracts nailed down. NBC has Notre Dame, and otherwise isn't a major player in college football. All the good college windows are taken. In the current atmosphere, and these atmospheres are contagious, people aren't talking about making deals. They're talking about shedding liabilities.
ESPN, FOX and CBS run the major sports "news" shows, and ESPN and FOX are where most people will eventually land to watch highlights. There were a lot of factors in the SEC becoming the premiere football league, but one of them was that ESPN put their thumb on the scale in coverage, giving glowing coverage of SEC games. Think of those highlight shows as being advertising for the schools that appear on them. ESPN covers all conferences, but if you think they're not going to boost their own programming, you're naive.
Here's the PAC's next problem. Streaming. Streaming shows are not going to get the same ratings as cable or broadcast. Amazon and Apple have both expressed interest in the PAC, but their reach is minimal compared to the others. This is huge in recruiting.
How often do you see Nick Saban on TV? How often do you see Dan Lanning (Oregon head coach)? You're a hot shot high school junior & get two phone calls, one from Nick Saban, and one from Dan Lanning. Which call is more exciting?
The other problem with streaming is that Tim Cook and Jeff Bezos aren't running charities. They want the best deal for their dollar. Amazon has stopped construction on some warehouses and is cutting over 7,000 jobs. Apple's core market (get it?) isn't sports fans. Neither of them is going to take significant risks. If they can get the PAC cheap, they will. Make no mistake, though. Neither of them needs the PAC.
If there's a way for the PAC to build leverage to get more money, I don't see it.
The SEC and B1G got Tiffany deals. B12 jumped in and got a Target level deal. PAC may end up with either Ollie's or Dollar General.
Recognizing the risk, I still think it's important to look at the landscape and see what's happening.
Yormark made what is looking like a master stroke in negotiating the B12 contract early. He also didn't overextend and try to get a contract matching what B1G/SEC got.
The B12 is now as stable as it's ever been. It may be faint praise, but there aren't any bigger, better deals out there for B12 members. Nobody's clawing on the door to get out. Schools have good exposure. Most importantly, the deal was signed before the full impact of the recession hit.
This brings us to the next thing. The PAC has some issues.
Everybody's rights are tied up, except the PAC, and we're in a recession, one that is hitting entertainment hard. Disney is cutting 5.5 billion and laying off 5,000. SVB Bank shut down, damaging the entertainment industry. FOX and CBS have their sports contracts nailed down. NBC has Notre Dame, and otherwise isn't a major player in college football. All the good college windows are taken. In the current atmosphere, and these atmospheres are contagious, people aren't talking about making deals. They're talking about shedding liabilities.
ESPN, FOX and CBS run the major sports "news" shows, and ESPN and FOX are where most people will eventually land to watch highlights. There were a lot of factors in the SEC becoming the premiere football league, but one of them was that ESPN put their thumb on the scale in coverage, giving glowing coverage of SEC games. Think of those highlight shows as being advertising for the schools that appear on them. ESPN covers all conferences, but if you think they're not going to boost their own programming, you're naive.
Here's the PAC's next problem. Streaming. Streaming shows are not going to get the same ratings as cable or broadcast. Amazon and Apple have both expressed interest in the PAC, but their reach is minimal compared to the others. This is huge in recruiting.
How often do you see Nick Saban on TV? How often do you see Dan Lanning (Oregon head coach)? You're a hot shot high school junior & get two phone calls, one from Nick Saban, and one from Dan Lanning. Which call is more exciting?
The other problem with streaming is that Tim Cook and Jeff Bezos aren't running charities. They want the best deal for their dollar. Amazon has stopped construction on some warehouses and is cutting over 7,000 jobs. Apple's core market (get it?) isn't sports fans. Neither of them is going to take significant risks. If they can get the PAC cheap, they will. Make no mistake, though. Neither of them needs the PAC.
If there's a way for the PAC to build leverage to get more money, I don't see it.
The SEC and B1G got Tiffany deals. B12 jumped in and got a Target level deal. PAC may end up with either Ollie's or Dollar General.
