By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
No. 9 Baylor (1-0) at No. 21 BYU (1-0)
Site: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo UT
Time/Day: 9:15 p.m., Saturday
TV/Radio: ESPN/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: BYU -2 1/2
Series: Baylor leads, 2-1
All week at the Highers Athletic Complex, the music had been piped in at deafening levels. The preached that there will be few supporters wearing green and gold beyond the Baylor sideline.
Every measure that a coaching staff could deploy to simulate a hostile environment to reduce the actual shock executed. But nothing will really match until the Bears and Cougars face each other on a late Saturday evening in the Wasatch Mountains.
In future years, the ramifications of this game impact the Big 12 race when BYU officially joins the Big 12 July 1, 2023. For now, this is about just winning a big game. Baylor has outside National Championship aspirations. BYU would like to play its way into the discussion.
"We've been playing a lot of our games at home from last season, but, going out there and staying together,'' 5th year defensive back Mark Milton said. "I mean, BYU has a really good fan base, but it's not about what they do. It's about what we do. So making sure we don't listen to the outside noise. We just worry about what we’re doing. I think we'll be fine. It will be good. Everybody's excited."
BYU is just the first of several difficult road land mines the Bears will have to cross. Other trips include West Virginia (never won), Oklahoma (one win) and Texas (lost last three visits).
The mark of a championship type of program is its ability to win on the road and win big games on the road. Dave Aranda's teams are 3-7 on the road through his first two seasons. And while his program went 5-1 against ranked teams last year including the last three wins against Top 10 teams, all of those were either at home or in neutral locations.
"I anticipate that this week just the outside noise will probably get more, more people, with more opinions. And I think a lot of it, for a fan, is good,'' Aranda said. "And I appreciate all that, but I think from the inside out, those could be looked at as distractions. So, to focus on what’s right ahead of us. Let’s have the best Tuesday practice, the best Wednesday practice, so on and so forth. And then, to up the quality, what are we going to call when we’ve got to have it? "
Here are some key elements to look for
>It's been reported that BYU will be without its top two receivers in Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney. They are deep play threats. Romney didn't play last week against South Florida. Nacua caught only one pass before he had to leave the game. Now, quarterback Jaren Hall has to dial it up with other targets between Chase Roberts, Brayden Cosper and Kody Epps.
>This is Baylor QB Blake Shapen's first true road test. He didn't have time to think about much last year when he entered the game against Kansas State. Baylor was already leading, so the KSU crowd was not a factor. His other two starts were at home and at AT&T Stadium. He's going to have to channel the nerves and move on quickly should he make a mistake.
>Baylor's ability to establish the running game early should be noticeable early. If it can, then that means it takes the crowd out of the game and wears down the BYU defensive front. As physical as these teams are, this is a game where you could see a mix of Taye McWilliams and Qualan Jones early and then mixed with Sqwirl Williams.
>But the same goes for BYU with Cal transfer RB Chris Brooks. He made a successful debut with 135 yards at South Florida last week. He's bigger, stronger and faster than last year's back Tyler Allgeier who was held to just 33 yards. BYU's offensive line was manhandled by Baylor's defensive line in that one.
Notable
Baylor rushed for at least one touchdown and ran for more than 100 yards in 13 of 14 games.
Keys to the game
>Turnovers - Both defenses were meh in their openers last week. Each collected just one. They were interceptions. As physical as this game is expected to be, it's going to be about who can wear down the other to where a turnover - more than likely a fumble - could enter into matters between the late third and early fourth quarter.
>Mile High -- Provo is nearly one mile above sea level at 4,551 feet. That gives BYU a built in advantage because it plays in it all the time. For programs like Baylor, who have never been there, there's going to have to be a way to navigate through that factor especially toward the end. It's about taking oxygen when needed and just learning to pace through the events.
Stall Hall -- For sure BYU QB Jaren Hall would like a shot at redemption after the way he played in Waco last year. Despite his key WR absences, he's going to test Baylor's young secondary with some shots. Any QB should to see how Snaxx Johnson and Milton handle it. But for them to have some success and survive some plays, Baylor's defensive front is going to have make it hard for Hall.
Strategic Gamble - There's going to come a point where Aranda faces a 4th-and-4 at the BYU 33 in the second quarter (or something like that). Last year, he said when it was less than five yards, his teams will go for it. But doing it at home vs. doing it on the road is another thing. When Aranda opts to move his chips to the middle of the table, he needs to be right.
Prediction
Following the 2021 meeting, the storyline was how Baylor's defensive line owned that game. BYU's offensive line could do nothing with it. I don't foresee that being any different. The Bears are deeper at DL this year. With the development of Gabe Halland Chidi Ogbonnaya just to name a couple, this group can play seven or eight in a game and not lose much. Should they make Brooks ordinary, Baylor will be in good shape. I expect Shapen to handle the noise and other distractions fine. But his young receivers between Hal Presley and Monaray Baldwin need to step up and help him. I don't know if the Baylor offense needs a trick play like it used with Dillon Doyle in this meeting last year. While experience is still something to be obtained, I think this Baylor offense is talented beyond the need for that. We'll see. This should go into the fourth quarter with a late score or huge late defensive stand favoring the Bears.
Baylor 30, BYU 26
Publisher
No. 9 Baylor (1-0) at No. 21 BYU (1-0)
Site: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo UT
Time/Day: 9:15 p.m., Saturday
TV/Radio: ESPN/ESPN Central Texas
Betting Line: BYU -2 1/2
Series: Baylor leads, 2-1
All week at the Highers Athletic Complex, the music had been piped in at deafening levels. The preached that there will be few supporters wearing green and gold beyond the Baylor sideline.
Every measure that a coaching staff could deploy to simulate a hostile environment to reduce the actual shock executed. But nothing will really match until the Bears and Cougars face each other on a late Saturday evening in the Wasatch Mountains.
In future years, the ramifications of this game impact the Big 12 race when BYU officially joins the Big 12 July 1, 2023. For now, this is about just winning a big game. Baylor has outside National Championship aspirations. BYU would like to play its way into the discussion.
"We've been playing a lot of our games at home from last season, but, going out there and staying together,'' 5th year defensive back Mark Milton said. "I mean, BYU has a really good fan base, but it's not about what they do. It's about what we do. So making sure we don't listen to the outside noise. We just worry about what we’re doing. I think we'll be fine. It will be good. Everybody's excited."
BYU is just the first of several difficult road land mines the Bears will have to cross. Other trips include West Virginia (never won), Oklahoma (one win) and Texas (lost last three visits).
The mark of a championship type of program is its ability to win on the road and win big games on the road. Dave Aranda's teams are 3-7 on the road through his first two seasons. And while his program went 5-1 against ranked teams last year including the last three wins against Top 10 teams, all of those were either at home or in neutral locations.
"I anticipate that this week just the outside noise will probably get more, more people, with more opinions. And I think a lot of it, for a fan, is good,'' Aranda said. "And I appreciate all that, but I think from the inside out, those could be looked at as distractions. So, to focus on what’s right ahead of us. Let’s have the best Tuesday practice, the best Wednesday practice, so on and so forth. And then, to up the quality, what are we going to call when we’ve got to have it? "
Here are some key elements to look for
>It's been reported that BYU will be without its top two receivers in Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney. They are deep play threats. Romney didn't play last week against South Florida. Nacua caught only one pass before he had to leave the game. Now, quarterback Jaren Hall has to dial it up with other targets between Chase Roberts, Brayden Cosper and Kody Epps.
>This is Baylor QB Blake Shapen's first true road test. He didn't have time to think about much last year when he entered the game against Kansas State. Baylor was already leading, so the KSU crowd was not a factor. His other two starts were at home and at AT&T Stadium. He's going to have to channel the nerves and move on quickly should he make a mistake.
>Baylor's ability to establish the running game early should be noticeable early. If it can, then that means it takes the crowd out of the game and wears down the BYU defensive front. As physical as these teams are, this is a game where you could see a mix of Taye McWilliams and Qualan Jones early and then mixed with Sqwirl Williams.
>But the same goes for BYU with Cal transfer RB Chris Brooks. He made a successful debut with 135 yards at South Florida last week. He's bigger, stronger and faster than last year's back Tyler Allgeier who was held to just 33 yards. BYU's offensive line was manhandled by Baylor's defensive line in that one.
Notable
Baylor rushed for at least one touchdown and ran for more than 100 yards in 13 of 14 games.
Keys to the game
>Turnovers - Both defenses were meh in their openers last week. Each collected just one. They were interceptions. As physical as this game is expected to be, it's going to be about who can wear down the other to where a turnover - more than likely a fumble - could enter into matters between the late third and early fourth quarter.
>Mile High -- Provo is nearly one mile above sea level at 4,551 feet. That gives BYU a built in advantage because it plays in it all the time. For programs like Baylor, who have never been there, there's going to have to be a way to navigate through that factor especially toward the end. It's about taking oxygen when needed and just learning to pace through the events.
Stall Hall -- For sure BYU QB Jaren Hall would like a shot at redemption after the way he played in Waco last year. Despite his key WR absences, he's going to test Baylor's young secondary with some shots. Any QB should to see how Snaxx Johnson and Milton handle it. But for them to have some success and survive some plays, Baylor's defensive front is going to have make it hard for Hall.
Strategic Gamble - There's going to come a point where Aranda faces a 4th-and-4 at the BYU 33 in the second quarter (or something like that). Last year, he said when it was less than five yards, his teams will go for it. But doing it at home vs. doing it on the road is another thing. When Aranda opts to move his chips to the middle of the table, he needs to be right.
Prediction
Following the 2021 meeting, the storyline was how Baylor's defensive line owned that game. BYU's offensive line could do nothing with it. I don't foresee that being any different. The Bears are deeper at DL this year. With the development of Gabe Halland Chidi Ogbonnaya just to name a couple, this group can play seven or eight in a game and not lose much. Should they make Brooks ordinary, Baylor will be in good shape. I expect Shapen to handle the noise and other distractions fine. But his young receivers between Hal Presley and Monaray Baldwin need to step up and help him. I don't know if the Baylor offense needs a trick play like it used with Dillon Doyle in this meeting last year. While experience is still something to be obtained, I think this Baylor offense is talented beyond the need for that. We'll see. This should go into the fourth quarter with a late score or huge late defensive stand favoring the Bears.
Baylor 30, BYU 26
