By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
Baylor closed the 2022 season with a humbling 30-15 loss to Air Force in Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Thursday in Fort Worth.
At no point did the Bears lead or even tie this game. The closest they came was drawing to within 9-7 in the final seconds of the first half on Blake Shapen’s 8-yard touchdown pass to Hal Presley. They took advantage of a short field the Falcons gave them when the defense made a fourth down stop at the Air Force 47.
However, the Falcons took the second half kickoff and scored. The Bears blew an opportunity after a shanked punt set them up at the Air Force 44. AFA immediately went down and scored to make it 23-7. That was pretty much it.
A season filled with such promise ends at 6-7 coupled with a four-game losing streak.
SicEmSports provides reflections, observations and three Golden Bears from this one.
Upon Reflection
You really don’t need much to really break down what happened here. There is no spin needed to disguise what happened in the bitter cold.
Baylor played a really poor game. For the most part, the defense was as standup as you could ask of it against the option. Given the fact that it was on the field for 40 minutes and allowed just 4.1 yards per carry (67-276) it was solid. It gave up only one play of 30 yards.
Plus, it made three fourth-down stops. The last two you could argue were Air Force’s attempt to run out the clock. But the first one led to Baylor’s first score.
Ironically, the defense was burned in the passing game in the third quarter. Right after Falcons’ QB Haaziq Daniels converted at 3rd-and-12 for 15 yards, he found Amari Terry on a 68-yard deep route. Terry got behind AJ McCarty. It was the second-longest passing play by the Falcons this year. Later in the quarter, Daniels found little-used Caleb Rillos for a 15-yard score. That was Rillos’ only second catch of the year. Total blown coverage. No one accounted for him.
Sometimes, that happens, especially when you’re on the field for two-thirds of the game. It was a good effort because playing an option team is an out-of-body experience.
Now, to the offense
Part of this, you give Air Force’s defense credit. It is the nation’s best in total defense at 256.2 yards per game. It held Baylor to 230.
Now, the gameplan is another story. It looked like a total grab bag of let’s try this and let’s try that and see what happens. The Bears have hung their hat on their running game. But they really made no attempt to establish it. It was a run here or a run there. There was no rhythm.
And the use of the backs was also bizarre. Baylor traditionally likes to get into a position where it can get someone going and use others as change of pace. Yet if they were attempting to do that, they bailed on it fast. Richard Reese had eight carries. Sqwirl Williams finished seven. Qualan Jones added five.
However, some of that is this offensive line looking like the offensive line at the beginning of the season. Of course, there were two missing starters. Micah Mazzccua is in the transfer portal. Khalil Keith was apparently sent home prior to the game for doing whatever it was he did. The new starters were Mose Jeffery and Gavin Byers. These were the two primary backups all season. Byers even made starts earlier in the season when Keith was nursing a knee injury. This wasn’t like they weren’t sure what they were doing. But the line was not physical at the point of attack and never established the line of scrimmage. Baylor finished with 26 attempts for 42 yards. That’s 1.6 ypc average.
And you can’t blame this on who was not out there for this performance. This running game started to go backwards in November. The Bears had 101 yards at Texas (2.6 ypc). They were good against TCU with 232 (5.0). They had 105 against Kansas State (4.5) and some of that was misleading because that game was out of hand.
With Barrington brothers coming from BYU for 2023, this unit needs an about face.
Shapen epilogue
Here’s the good news. Blake Shapen didn’t commit any turnovers. He snapped that eight-game nightmare where he had 12 starting with Oklahoma State on Oct. 1.
However, he didn’t look any different in the way he ran this offense. Sharp cold notwithstanding, Shapen looked unsure, tried to guide the ball and rarely put it in positions to help his receivers or backs. His good throws were few and far between. That’s not going to cut it P5 Division I football.
Shapen finished the night 11-23-0 for 188 yards and two scores. For the season, Shapen completed 63.3 percent of his passes (but 57.3 percent for the last five games) for 2,790 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
His only two good completions were the touchdown passes to Presley and the 57-yard deep post route to Jaylin Ellis that led to the second touchdown. The 14-yard TD pass to Gavin Holmes was a simple screen that was blocked well and the seam opened.
Frankly, his feel for the position and being comfortable deteriorated as the season matured. Maybe he never fully recovered from the concussion at West Virginia and should not have played against Kansas. That could have played a role.
Now, he’s the only one on scholarship in this position room. As I said previously, if Baylor is going to secure a QB or two from the portal, that candidate(s) must be assured he will have a chance to win the starting job. Shapen is not entitled to be the starting QB in 2023.
Special teams disaster
Maybe it was Ronnie Wheat or maybe its just a matter of everything going bad. But there were three mistakes that cost the Bears 12 points.
There’s no excuse for Issac Power’s first two punts going high into the air against a tough north wind. Those needed to be low line drives. His first one went for 33 yards and got some help on a roll but gave Air Force the ball on its 45. Touchdown Falcons. His second was worse at 23 yards and traveled to the Falcons’ 42. Field goal Falcons. Now, it’s 9-0.
Then on Baylor’s first scoring threat, John Mayer’s 38-yard field goal was an aborted mission. His kick was so bad, but the play was not entirely his fault. It was a really bad snap that caused the timing to implode. There are your 12 points.
One thought
With prospects for 2023 uncertain at best, look for Baylor to be picked in the second division of the Big 12 – even with the new programs in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joining the league July 1 – and if the Bears put together another season similar to this one, then who knows what that means for the future.
Dave Aranda has a lot of pressure on him to get this fixed. Firing assistant coaches has some optics to it. However, there are a lot of infrastructure things that need to be overhauled. When it’s right in the locker room, it’s typically right on the field.
That doesn’t appear to be the case.
Golden Bears
The yearly tradition returns where SicEmSports highlights the three players who stood out in their performance on a weekly basis. Win or lose, they deserve the recognition.
The following are from Baylor’s 30-15 loss to Air Force.
Tevin Williams, DB, RFr – With Snaxx Johnson sent home, the secondary needed someone to step in. While Air Force wasn’t going to challenge the secondary, Williams did solid work in run support.
Notable – 5 solo tackles, 1 TFL
Matt Jones, LB, Jr. – A good game for him. Of course, against the option you’re going to have a lot of opportunities to make plays. There were a couple of whiffs. But that option does that too.
Notable – 9 solo tackles, 1 assisted tackle
Jaylen Ellis, WR, Jr. – Well, if you need a receiver to go to on a deep post route, he’s the guy. He caught a 47-yard TD against Texas. That was followed by the 57-yard grab. That wasn’t an easy catch in those conditions. Here’s a wild stat on Ellis for 2022. He’s caught three passes for 154 yards. That’s 51.3 yards per catch.
Notable – Receiving: 1-57
Publisher
Baylor closed the 2022 season with a humbling 30-15 loss to Air Force in Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Thursday in Fort Worth.
At no point did the Bears lead or even tie this game. The closest they came was drawing to within 9-7 in the final seconds of the first half on Blake Shapen’s 8-yard touchdown pass to Hal Presley. They took advantage of a short field the Falcons gave them when the defense made a fourth down stop at the Air Force 47.
However, the Falcons took the second half kickoff and scored. The Bears blew an opportunity after a shanked punt set them up at the Air Force 44. AFA immediately went down and scored to make it 23-7. That was pretty much it.
A season filled with such promise ends at 6-7 coupled with a four-game losing streak.
SicEmSports provides reflections, observations and three Golden Bears from this one.
Upon Reflection
You really don’t need much to really break down what happened here. There is no spin needed to disguise what happened in the bitter cold.
Baylor played a really poor game. For the most part, the defense was as standup as you could ask of it against the option. Given the fact that it was on the field for 40 minutes and allowed just 4.1 yards per carry (67-276) it was solid. It gave up only one play of 30 yards.
Plus, it made three fourth-down stops. The last two you could argue were Air Force’s attempt to run out the clock. But the first one led to Baylor’s first score.
Ironically, the defense was burned in the passing game in the third quarter. Right after Falcons’ QB Haaziq Daniels converted at 3rd-and-12 for 15 yards, he found Amari Terry on a 68-yard deep route. Terry got behind AJ McCarty. It was the second-longest passing play by the Falcons this year. Later in the quarter, Daniels found little-used Caleb Rillos for a 15-yard score. That was Rillos’ only second catch of the year. Total blown coverage. No one accounted for him.
Sometimes, that happens, especially when you’re on the field for two-thirds of the game. It was a good effort because playing an option team is an out-of-body experience.
Now, to the offense
Part of this, you give Air Force’s defense credit. It is the nation’s best in total defense at 256.2 yards per game. It held Baylor to 230.
Now, the gameplan is another story. It looked like a total grab bag of let’s try this and let’s try that and see what happens. The Bears have hung their hat on their running game. But they really made no attempt to establish it. It was a run here or a run there. There was no rhythm.
And the use of the backs was also bizarre. Baylor traditionally likes to get into a position where it can get someone going and use others as change of pace. Yet if they were attempting to do that, they bailed on it fast. Richard Reese had eight carries. Sqwirl Williams finished seven. Qualan Jones added five.
However, some of that is this offensive line looking like the offensive line at the beginning of the season. Of course, there were two missing starters. Micah Mazzccua is in the transfer portal. Khalil Keith was apparently sent home prior to the game for doing whatever it was he did. The new starters were Mose Jeffery and Gavin Byers. These were the two primary backups all season. Byers even made starts earlier in the season when Keith was nursing a knee injury. This wasn’t like they weren’t sure what they were doing. But the line was not physical at the point of attack and never established the line of scrimmage. Baylor finished with 26 attempts for 42 yards. That’s 1.6 ypc average.
And you can’t blame this on who was not out there for this performance. This running game started to go backwards in November. The Bears had 101 yards at Texas (2.6 ypc). They were good against TCU with 232 (5.0). They had 105 against Kansas State (4.5) and some of that was misleading because that game was out of hand.
With Barrington brothers coming from BYU for 2023, this unit needs an about face.
Shapen epilogue
Here’s the good news. Blake Shapen didn’t commit any turnovers. He snapped that eight-game nightmare where he had 12 starting with Oklahoma State on Oct. 1.
However, he didn’t look any different in the way he ran this offense. Sharp cold notwithstanding, Shapen looked unsure, tried to guide the ball and rarely put it in positions to help his receivers or backs. His good throws were few and far between. That’s not going to cut it P5 Division I football.
Shapen finished the night 11-23-0 for 188 yards and two scores. For the season, Shapen completed 63.3 percent of his passes (but 57.3 percent for the last five games) for 2,790 yards with 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
His only two good completions were the touchdown passes to Presley and the 57-yard deep post route to Jaylin Ellis that led to the second touchdown. The 14-yard TD pass to Gavin Holmes was a simple screen that was blocked well and the seam opened.
Frankly, his feel for the position and being comfortable deteriorated as the season matured. Maybe he never fully recovered from the concussion at West Virginia and should not have played against Kansas. That could have played a role.
Now, he’s the only one on scholarship in this position room. As I said previously, if Baylor is going to secure a QB or two from the portal, that candidate(s) must be assured he will have a chance to win the starting job. Shapen is not entitled to be the starting QB in 2023.
Special teams disaster
Maybe it was Ronnie Wheat or maybe its just a matter of everything going bad. But there were three mistakes that cost the Bears 12 points.
There’s no excuse for Issac Power’s first two punts going high into the air against a tough north wind. Those needed to be low line drives. His first one went for 33 yards and got some help on a roll but gave Air Force the ball on its 45. Touchdown Falcons. His second was worse at 23 yards and traveled to the Falcons’ 42. Field goal Falcons. Now, it’s 9-0.
Then on Baylor’s first scoring threat, John Mayer’s 38-yard field goal was an aborted mission. His kick was so bad, but the play was not entirely his fault. It was a really bad snap that caused the timing to implode. There are your 12 points.
One thought
With prospects for 2023 uncertain at best, look for Baylor to be picked in the second division of the Big 12 – even with the new programs in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joining the league July 1 – and if the Bears put together another season similar to this one, then who knows what that means for the future.
Dave Aranda has a lot of pressure on him to get this fixed. Firing assistant coaches has some optics to it. However, there are a lot of infrastructure things that need to be overhauled. When it’s right in the locker room, it’s typically right on the field.
That doesn’t appear to be the case.
Golden Bears
The yearly tradition returns where SicEmSports highlights the three players who stood out in their performance on a weekly basis. Win or lose, they deserve the recognition.
The following are from Baylor’s 30-15 loss to Air Force.
Tevin Williams, DB, RFr – With Snaxx Johnson sent home, the secondary needed someone to step in. While Air Force wasn’t going to challenge the secondary, Williams did solid work in run support.
Notable – 5 solo tackles, 1 TFL
Matt Jones, LB, Jr. – A good game for him. Of course, against the option you’re going to have a lot of opportunities to make plays. There were a couple of whiffs. But that option does that too.
Notable – 9 solo tackles, 1 assisted tackle
Jaylen Ellis, WR, Jr. – Well, if you need a receiver to go to on a deep post route, he’s the guy. He caught a 47-yard TD against Texas. That was followed by the 57-yard grab. That wasn’t an easy catch in those conditions. Here’s a wild stat on Ellis for 2022. He’s caught three passes for 154 yards. That’s 51.3 yards per catch.
Notable – Receiving: 1-57
