By Kevin Lonnquist
Publisher
Everything that needed to be completed for Baylor football this offseason has been completed.
The coaching staff is in place with the return of Matthew Powledge at defensive coordinator, Christian Robinson the new inside linebackers coach and Tyler Hancock handling the special teams.
Minus a last-minute transfer portal addition – that seems unlikely but never say never – the roster is also set. Then, there’s the quarterback battle that was resolved as Blake Shapen was named the starter at least for the beginning of the 2023 season.
Preseason predictions about the Bears are starting to circulate. This is a schedule that favors the Bears with eight home games. Couple that with the four new Big 12 arrivals – BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF – who officially become members Saturday but are not expected to contend and there’s an opportunity to bounce back from the 6-7 2022 campaign.
SicEmSports provides its game-by-game prediction for the upcoming fall campaign.
Sept. 2 vs. Texas State: Well, we all remember that drive at the end of the first half of last year’s game. Even though Baylor won 42-7, it served as a watershed of things to come for the rest of the season.
This opener should be routine for the Bears. G. J. Kinne makes his debut as head coach for the Bobcats. What fans need to see from this one is Shapen looking confident, crisp and executing in all areas. Anything less would be concerning.
Result: Baylor 42, Texas State 10
Baylor Record: 1-0
Sept. 9 vs. Utah: This is the game that likely foretells where the rest of the season is going. The wild card in this game is the health of Utah QB Cam Rising. He tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. It’s unclear if he would be ready for this game or not.
Still, Baylor must play near perfect on both sides of the ball. That means Shapen cannot have any turnovers. This is a watershed game for him as well.
Result: Utah 27, Baylor 17
Baylor Record: 1-1
Sept. 16 vs. Long Island: Well, no one should worry about this one. This is the time to maybe show up middle of the first quarter after the tailgate and likely leave middle of the third quarter.
Long Island is a program that does have a decent history at the lower levels of football and is coming off a 4-7 season in 2022. This is also a guarantee game. Should this go the way that is anticipated, the reserves could be in to start the second half.
Result: Baylor 56, Long Island 7
Baylor Record: 2-1
Sept. 23 vs. Texas: The Big 12 opener and likely the last ever meeting between these two programs where the series spans back to 1923. Managing emotions for Baylor properly is going to be paramount if the upset is to be pulled.
Texas is the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 before it heads to the SEC in 2024. The Longhorns know they’re going to get everybody’s best shot. Baylor can win this if both its running game and rushing defense are sound.
Play this game straight up and Texas wins.
Result: Texas 24, Baylor 21
Baylor Record: 2-2
Sept. 30 at UCF: These two haven’t seen each other since the 2014 Fiesta Bowl in which the Golden Knights won, 52-42. Of course, Baylor was coming off its first Big 12 championship. In fact, that’s the only time they’ve ever met.
It’s also going to feel a bit odd since the Bears opened the season with the first four games at McLane Stadium. This is the first road game. Now, they see Gus Malzahn. UCF is supposed to be the best of the four new schools to handle the transition to the P5 ranks. Former Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee is the starting QB.
Result: Baylor 31, UCF 27
Baylor Record: 3-2
Oct. 7 vs. Texas Tech: The return of Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders are expected to be even better than what they were last year. They were the surprise team of the Big 12 in 2022.
Of course, Baylor handled the Red Raiders in Lubbock last year. It’s a case of how physical Baylor’s defense can be to keep that explosive Texas Tech offense slowed to some extent.
Result: Baylor 35, Texas Tech 28
Baylor Record: 4-2
Oct. 21 at Cincinnati: On paper, this should be a road win for the Bears. Cincinnati has a decent defense returning. However, the offense is in flux as incumbent QB Ben Bryant hit the portal in the spring. Arizona State transfer Emory Jones appears to be the favorite.
New head coach Scott Satterfield is coming over from Louisville and likely will have to lean on that defense all season.
Result: Baylor 21, Cincinnati 13
Baylor Record: 5-2
Oct. 28 vs. Iowa State: Well, it looks like the window for the Cyclones to be at the top of the Big 12 has come and gone. Matt Campbell’s program went 4-8, the first losing season since 2016.
The Cyclones will always bring a solid defense. But if the Bears can make life difficult for sophomore QB Hunter Dekkers, they should be OK in this one. Look for the BU defense to create some turnovers.
Result: Baylor 28, Iowa State 17
Baylor Record: 6-2
Nov. 4 vs. Houston: Expectations aren’t very high with the Cougars, even though former Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith will be running the offense. In fact, the Cougars lost so much that they are predicted to be near the bottom of the Big 12.
Baylor and Houston tried to play each other during the 2020 covid season but COVID issues caused it to fall apart.
The Bears should take advantage of the Cougars and the favorable home schedule.
Result: Baylor 38, Houston 17
Baylor Record: 7-2
Nov. 11 at Kansas State: Expectations are high for the reigning Big 12 champions. QB Will Howard returns. The Wildcats will have to replace special RB Deuce Vaughn. But their defense should be in pretty good shape.
If the season plays out from previous predicted results, the Bears will be in the race for the Big 12 championship. But this is the start to a pivotal two-game road swing that will determine their title game hopes. Likely not going to be enough in Manhattan, KS.
Result: Kansas State 31, Baylor 21
Baylor Record: 7-3
Nov. 18 at TCU: If this season is going the way Baylor hopes, this meeting at Amon Carter Stadium will be an elimination game. This series has been a struggle for the Bears as they have won only once in the last eight meetings.
If the Horned Frogs offense is cooking under new QB Chandler Morris, Baylor is going to have a tough time here. They saw that when Morris started and beat them in 2021. Chances are the Bears will.
Result: TCU 35, Baylor 29
Baylor Record: Record 7-4
Nov. 25 vs. West Virginia: Like Houston, expectations for the Mountaineers are very low. In fact, should things play out as such, the question would be if head coach Neal Brown is coaching this game or not.
Senior Day for the Bears who want to end on a good note with progress with a bowl appearance and momentum into 2024. They should be able to do that.
Result: Baylor 38, West Virginia 20
Baylor Record: 8-4
Bowl: Texas or Liberty
Publisher’s Note: I’ll grant you I’m a little more optimistic on this. However, when you have eight home games, you better take advantage of it. The range of 6-8 wins is probably right for this team. Really, seven wins is the minimum.
I wrote a couple of weeks ago how Utah determines the fate of this season. Still believe that. The road games at UCF and Cincinnati determine if this team can find eight wins.
However, if this team is changing QBs during the season due to injury or ineffectiveness, then all bets are off for 2023.
Publisher
Everything that needed to be completed for Baylor football this offseason has been completed.
The coaching staff is in place with the return of Matthew Powledge at defensive coordinator, Christian Robinson the new inside linebackers coach and Tyler Hancock handling the special teams.
Minus a last-minute transfer portal addition – that seems unlikely but never say never – the roster is also set. Then, there’s the quarterback battle that was resolved as Blake Shapen was named the starter at least for the beginning of the 2023 season.
Preseason predictions about the Bears are starting to circulate. This is a schedule that favors the Bears with eight home games. Couple that with the four new Big 12 arrivals – BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF – who officially become members Saturday but are not expected to contend and there’s an opportunity to bounce back from the 6-7 2022 campaign.
SicEmSports provides its game-by-game prediction for the upcoming fall campaign.
Sept. 2 vs. Texas State: Well, we all remember that drive at the end of the first half of last year’s game. Even though Baylor won 42-7, it served as a watershed of things to come for the rest of the season.
This opener should be routine for the Bears. G. J. Kinne makes his debut as head coach for the Bobcats. What fans need to see from this one is Shapen looking confident, crisp and executing in all areas. Anything less would be concerning.
Result: Baylor 42, Texas State 10
Baylor Record: 1-0
Sept. 9 vs. Utah: This is the game that likely foretells where the rest of the season is going. The wild card in this game is the health of Utah QB Cam Rising. He tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl against Penn State. It’s unclear if he would be ready for this game or not.
Still, Baylor must play near perfect on both sides of the ball. That means Shapen cannot have any turnovers. This is a watershed game for him as well.
Result: Utah 27, Baylor 17
Baylor Record: 1-1
Sept. 16 vs. Long Island: Well, no one should worry about this one. This is the time to maybe show up middle of the first quarter after the tailgate and likely leave middle of the third quarter.
Long Island is a program that does have a decent history at the lower levels of football and is coming off a 4-7 season in 2022. This is also a guarantee game. Should this go the way that is anticipated, the reserves could be in to start the second half.
Result: Baylor 56, Long Island 7
Baylor Record: 2-1
Sept. 23 vs. Texas: The Big 12 opener and likely the last ever meeting between these two programs where the series spans back to 1923. Managing emotions for Baylor properly is going to be paramount if the upset is to be pulled.
Texas is the preseason favorite to win the Big 12 before it heads to the SEC in 2024. The Longhorns know they’re going to get everybody’s best shot. Baylor can win this if both its running game and rushing defense are sound.
Play this game straight up and Texas wins.
Result: Texas 24, Baylor 21
Baylor Record: 2-2
Sept. 30 at UCF: These two haven’t seen each other since the 2014 Fiesta Bowl in which the Golden Knights won, 52-42. Of course, Baylor was coming off its first Big 12 championship. In fact, that’s the only time they’ve ever met.
It’s also going to feel a bit odd since the Bears opened the season with the first four games at McLane Stadium. This is the first road game. Now, they see Gus Malzahn. UCF is supposed to be the best of the four new schools to handle the transition to the P5 ranks. Former Ole Miss QB John Rhys Plumlee is the starting QB.
Result: Baylor 31, UCF 27
Baylor Record: 3-2
Oct. 7 vs. Texas Tech: The return of Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders are expected to be even better than what they were last year. They were the surprise team of the Big 12 in 2022.
Of course, Baylor handled the Red Raiders in Lubbock last year. It’s a case of how physical Baylor’s defense can be to keep that explosive Texas Tech offense slowed to some extent.
Result: Baylor 35, Texas Tech 28
Baylor Record: 4-2
Oct. 21 at Cincinnati: On paper, this should be a road win for the Bears. Cincinnati has a decent defense returning. However, the offense is in flux as incumbent QB Ben Bryant hit the portal in the spring. Arizona State transfer Emory Jones appears to be the favorite.
New head coach Scott Satterfield is coming over from Louisville and likely will have to lean on that defense all season.
Result: Baylor 21, Cincinnati 13
Baylor Record: 5-2
Oct. 28 vs. Iowa State: Well, it looks like the window for the Cyclones to be at the top of the Big 12 has come and gone. Matt Campbell’s program went 4-8, the first losing season since 2016.
The Cyclones will always bring a solid defense. But if the Bears can make life difficult for sophomore QB Hunter Dekkers, they should be OK in this one. Look for the BU defense to create some turnovers.
Result: Baylor 28, Iowa State 17
Baylor Record: 6-2
Nov. 4 vs. Houston: Expectations aren’t very high with the Cougars, even though former Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith will be running the offense. In fact, the Cougars lost so much that they are predicted to be near the bottom of the Big 12.
Baylor and Houston tried to play each other during the 2020 covid season but COVID issues caused it to fall apart.
The Bears should take advantage of the Cougars and the favorable home schedule.
Result: Baylor 38, Houston 17
Baylor Record: 7-2
Nov. 11 at Kansas State: Expectations are high for the reigning Big 12 champions. QB Will Howard returns. The Wildcats will have to replace special RB Deuce Vaughn. But their defense should be in pretty good shape.
If the season plays out from previous predicted results, the Bears will be in the race for the Big 12 championship. But this is the start to a pivotal two-game road swing that will determine their title game hopes. Likely not going to be enough in Manhattan, KS.
Result: Kansas State 31, Baylor 21
Baylor Record: 7-3
Nov. 18 at TCU: If this season is going the way Baylor hopes, this meeting at Amon Carter Stadium will be an elimination game. This series has been a struggle for the Bears as they have won only once in the last eight meetings.
If the Horned Frogs offense is cooking under new QB Chandler Morris, Baylor is going to have a tough time here. They saw that when Morris started and beat them in 2021. Chances are the Bears will.
Result: TCU 35, Baylor 29
Baylor Record: Record 7-4
Nov. 25 vs. West Virginia: Like Houston, expectations for the Mountaineers are very low. In fact, should things play out as such, the question would be if head coach Neal Brown is coaching this game or not.
Senior Day for the Bears who want to end on a good note with progress with a bowl appearance and momentum into 2024. They should be able to do that.
Result: Baylor 38, West Virginia 20
Baylor Record: 8-4
Bowl: Texas or Liberty
Publisher’s Note: I’ll grant you I’m a little more optimistic on this. However, when you have eight home games, you better take advantage of it. The range of 6-8 wins is probably right for this team. Really, seven wins is the minimum.
I wrote a couple of weeks ago how Utah determines the fate of this season. Still believe that. The road games at UCF and Cincinnati determine if this team can find eight wins.
However, if this team is changing QBs during the season due to injury or ineffectiveness, then all bets are off for 2023.
